Nyanza big names likely to fill Raila’s void, chart new course

A radical shift is expected in the late ODM leader Raila Odinga’s Nyanza political backyard, with names of seasoned politicians popping up as possible replacements to fill the void.

The region, long considered the heartbeat of Raila’s political empire, could undergo an unprecedented and fierce transition as key figures position themselves to inherit his mantle.

Barely days after Raila’s demise, the race to control the Nyanza political bloc and, by extension, the ODM political machine, has intensified, with his elder brother Oburu Odinga hurriedly installed as the acting party leader.

The installation has triggered silent unease.

“The National Executive Committee (NEC) has this morning met and unanimously endorsed the designation of Senator of Siaya County, Oburu Oginga, as the acting party leader. This appointment takes effect immediately,” the party said in a brief statement posted on its official platforms.

The NEC’s decision marks the first major internal move by ODM since the loss of its founding leader, whose political career spanned over four decades.

The appointment of Oburu is expected to ensure continuity in leadership as the party prepares to chart its next course.

Analysts, however, see it as a move by pro-broad-based forces within the outfit to ring-fence the party from a possible ‘coup’.

“The transition was rushed; those behind it are fellows who want Oburu there because of the broad-based politics,” political analyst Martin Andati told the Star on the phone.

Inheriting Raila’s big shoes comes with heavy expectations, including keeping the region politically relevant, united and involved in national political decisions.

It also requires someone who will keep Raila’s reform flame burning.

Apart from Oburu, some of the big names popping up whenever Raila’s succession is mentioned include Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi (Treasury), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), Governors Anyang’ Nyong’o (Kisumu), Gladys Wanga (Homa Bay) and Senator James Orengo (Siaya).

Firebrand Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Interior PS Raymond Omolo have also emerged among the leading contenders.

Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo and Suna East’s Junet Mohamed have also been mentioned as potential successors, both leveraging their national visibility and proximity to Raila’s inner circle in recent years.

While ODM has already endorsed Oburu as the interim party leader, insiders say the endorsement has done little to calm the looming fierce internal contest.

Analysts argue that the community is likely to chart a post-Raila path less tied to family lineage and more to generational renewal.

“I think the succession in Luo Nyanza backyards started a while ago with the likes of Babu Owino positioning themselves to take over. That was an attempt to start it (the succession). Now we can say it has started in earnest for the supremo of the Luo Nyanza politics,” University don Prof Gitile Naituli told the Star.

“The front runners in Luo Nyanza mantleship are Babu and the likes of Orengo. Mbadi and Wandayi are also contenders.”

Naituli opines that many fresh faces are likely to emerge to occupy the space left by Raila.

“Nyanza has leaders which people were not able to see because of Raila’s shadow. Nyanza has produced very eloquent and smart leaders but they have not been able to get the space,” Naituli stated.

“Luo Nyanza likes to identify with a strong and fearless leader.”

Mbadi, a long-time Raila stalwart, has held both party structures the longest as well as institutional positions.

He was endorsed last year by Raila’s wife, Ida Odinga, as the ‘political kingpin’ for Luo Nyanza and is seen as a figure who can unify the community and bargain for the region given his oratory skills.

“For long, Baba has been training Mbadi and he (Mbadi) doesn’t want any more training. You fit the bill, Mbadi Nyang’, that is it. Mbadi is where Raila’s heart is,” Ida said at the time, when Raila was disengaging from local politics to mount his AUC campaign.

Ida said the seasoned lawmaker has come of age and is best suited to lead the politically-charged community after Raila.

Around the same time, Oburu threw his weight behind Wandayi, who also held a party position and led the minority side in the House.

Ida and Oburu’s endorsements were not just symbolic but gave a window into the thinking of the influential Odinga family.

Babu’s boon is his youthful energy, which appeals to the majority of the young voters, marking him the ‘people’s choice’ .

Orengo and Nyong’o are viewed as more established and experienced hands that could steer the region, offering continuity from where Raila left off.

Institutional experience with Raila’s brand of politics and local legitimacy works for the two.

It is instructive to note that Raila picked Nyong’o to fill his shoes at the ODM apex to allow him to concentrate on the African Union Commission (AUC) campaigns.

Omollo, who has been quietly building grassroots networks across the Nyanza region, could easily emerge from outside the traditional ODM hierarchy.

During the AUC campaigns, both Babu and Suba South MP Caroli Omondi said the region has leaders who are capable of taking up the challenge.

“We cannot be orphans because when we have leaders like members of the National Assembly and senators, it is only that the unifying factor is taking another assignment,” Caroli said on the eve of the campaigns last year.

Babu was confident the Luo nation would get a way forward—should Raila exit local politics.

“We will not be orphaned, there will be a way forward. God knows the leaders who will take us to Canaan,” he said at the time. 

INSTANT ANALYSIS

Raila’s identity has been deeply intertwined with Luo political identity. The successor will inherit not just his political machinery but the burdens of expectation: to uphold certain values, stand for certain issues (inequality, democracy, inclusion). The balance is delicate—be too radical, risk backlash; too status quo, lose momentum.