Fierce succession battle rocks ODM as NEC installs Oburu to replace Raila

The announcement, made after an emergency NEC meeting in Nairobi, was aimed at stabilising the party amid rising internal tensions and jostling for control.

Party insiders say the move was intended to provide a “transitional figure” as ODM prepares for what is expected to be an intense succession battle.

In a statement on Thursday, the party said NEC made the decision “until that time the party organs will meet and elect a substantive party leader to fit in the shoes that have been left by our leader.”

The NEC met at Argyle hotel on Mombasa Road, the same facility where Raila held his last public meeting with Members of the National Assembly from his Orange Party on September 22.

Oburu, a veteran politician and elder brother to Raila, is expected to steady the ship even as a wing of the party questioned the hurried manner the declaration was made.

The meeting was attended by co-deputy party leaders Godfrey Osotsi and Simba Arati and the party’s national chairperson Gladys Wanga. Earlier, ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna called on party supporters to ensure they remain united in the party.

“While we process this adverse news and await further updates, I urge all party members to observe the tenets of unity and rally together as we reflect on the life and times of our leader, a man who has been a mentor and a father to all, hence the moniker ‘Baba’,” Sifuna said in a statement.

A second-term ODM lawmaker who spoke in confidence said NEC should have allowed members to mourn before making such a move.

“I am not sure what informed the rush, but I think the timing is just not right. We are still mourning,” the lawmaker told the Star.

The MP added that Raila had already indicated his preference of the kind of person to take over from him in his ‘absence’.

“When he was confronted with such a decision during his AUC engagements, it is in the public domain who he (Raila) chose,” the MP said.

While Raila was disengaging from the party to concentrate in his African Union Commission campaigns, he handed over the leadership of the political outfit to Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o. 

Several senior figures as well as youthful MPs are said to be eyeing the party leadership and will challenge Oburu’s elevation when the party holds its delegates’ conference.

Analysts warn that the succession fight could reshape ODM’s power dynamics and test whether the movement can survive the post-Raila era intact.

Political analyst Martin Andati said the rushed installation of Oburu has more do with broad-based politics than stability in the party.

“It is rushed. There are fellows within the party who are rooting for Oburu to end any wrangling and also because of Oburu’s position on broad-based politics,” Andati told the Star on phone.

Oburu, unlike Nyong’o, has publicly endorsed the party working with President William Ruto’s UDA even in 2027.

The power struggle is also expected to spill over to Raila’s Luo Nyanza stronghold, a region he commanded fanatical support from.

Several names, including those of Oburu Odinga, John Mbadi, Anyang’ Nyong’o, Babu Owino and Opiyo Wandayi, are being floated as possible successors, each drawing support from different blocs within the movement.

“The region will be under immense pressure to convene and provide direction, even as regional power brokers position themselves for the top seat,” another ODM legislator told the Star in confidence.
Observers warn that if not carefully managed, the internal wrangles could fracture ODM, a party that has for decades stood as the face of opposition politics in Kenya.

Analysts say the coming days will test whether ODM can survive beyond Raila’s shadow or descend into a bruising power struggle that could redefine Kenya’s political landscape.