Baptism of fire: Matiang'i's options narrow as ex-CS faces brutal politics

Even before the dust of the pompous event settles, the harsh realities of the country’s politics have started sinking in for the former Interior CS.

Hot on the heels of his unveiling, DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua and his allies started lamenting about a plot to undermine the former DP.

They argued that Matiang'i, instead of heading to Kisii to consolidate his votes, is focusing on Mt Kenya, aided by Uhuru Kenyatta’s machinery.

From the ensuing machinations, it has come out that Matiang'i may no longer be welcome in the Kalonzo-Gachagua axis.

The group, including Martha Karua, Kalonzo, Justin Muturi, Eugene Wamalwa, Gachagua, and Matiang'i, has yet to settle on a single flag bearer. Each of them, however, has expressed interest in running for office.

The situation has been worsened by the tiff pitting the former Deputy President and Uhuru, who has also launched scathing attacks against the William Ruto administration.

Insiders whispered to Star on Thursday that the former Interior CS was no front runner among their top preferences for the presidential ticket.

“We will give him a slot, but not any of the top seats. He just came the other day, and his political clout remains unknown,” a top member of the United Opposition said.

In the circumstances, Matiang'i could be left with few options of either running alone or teaming up with President Ruto, from where he can negotiate a slot.

Even in that case, realignments are inevitable, considering that Ruto is still working with Raila, and the two have not shown strong signs of going their separate ways ahead of 2027.

Caught in this crossfire, Matiang'i's political options are rapidly narrowing. The initial hope of a broad, united opposition ticket is fading, leaving him with a critical choice.

Political analyst Martin Andati says the Gachagua-Uhuru tiff, which has played out since last Friday when Jubilee made its declaration, stands to affect the former CS a great deal.

“It makes it very difficult for Matiang'i to be a formidable player in the political equation because he is relying heavily on the backing of Uhuru and the mountain vote to boost his chances considerably.

“All indicators are that the mountain will follow Gachagua and not Uhuru as they consider Uhuru's influence to be seriously diminished as he is not eligible to vie for any seat now and in the future,” Andati said.

“If Team Riggy G opts to sideline Jubilee, as is highly likely, then Matiang'i would be left with sections of the Kisii vote and pockets of support here and there, which won’t make him amount to much,” Andati explained.

His allies, like Kitutu Chache South MP Antony Kibagendi, have been sending out teasers, including suggestions of a ticket that has the former Interior CS and Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro as a possible running mate.

Kibagendi posted on Facebook, “What about this ticket? Fred Matiang’i and his running mate Ndindi Nyoro? Tumalize hii story mapema.”

Asked about the suggestion, the lawmaker said it was the most viable ticket – from their internal calculations, much as the Kalonzo ticket remains a viable option, too.

“It was just to show that we don’t lack options…and as it stands, it is the most viable ticket for us. The Kalonzo-Matiang’i ticket works, but this has the greatest impetus,” Kibagendi said.

The MP emphasised that the former CS is still operating in the realm, the opposition is still in talks, and nothing is conclusive yet.

“We have not made any resolute decisions because members are still talking. Mt Kenya can’t be left to Riggy G yet Uhuru also has interest,” the lawmaker and Matiang’i’s chief defender said.

He argued that Gachagua’s fears could stem from a belief that Jubilee’s networks in the mountain still run deeper and wider than DCP's, which could work to the ex-DP’s disadvantage.

Kibagendi took a swipe at the former DP for being impatient, not only with Jubilee but also other parties in Mt Kenya, notably DP, PNU, DEP, and Farmers' Party.

Kitui Central MP Makali Mulu, a Kalonzo ally and key figure in the United Opposition, said it was still early to speak about tickets.

“It is premature to speak about positions or tickets, but we’ll definitely consider all political allies as valuable to our cause,” the MP said.

There are schools of thought that, in the face of the accommodation challenges, the other options the ex-CS could explore or be talked into include the Nairobi governor position.

Political analyst Prof Gitile Naituli cautions that Matiang'i faces a serious challenge of consolidation, arguing that the former CS was using a precarious strategy by starting from Mt Kenya.

He says the former CS should "first consolidate Kisii, Kuria, and Luo support, not Mt Kenya," defining him as a "competitive candidate if guided the right way".

For Naituli, the ex-CS is "more believable as a technocrat than the politicians who have perfected the art of lying".

The ex-CS has been visibly mobilising in Mt Kenya, and the Jubilee convention served as the culmination of his integration into the party's machinery and inner sanctums.

Just days before, he had held a strategic consultative meeting at Safari Park in Nairobi with a host of Jubilee leaders, including secretary general Jeremiah Kioni and other former legislators.

The party believes that despite the reactions the convention sparked, including the criticism levelled by Gachagua, the chosen candidate (Matiang'i) has a good starting point and will be easy to market.

Former Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu said, “Matiangi was the primary technical implementer of the Jubilee manifesto for 10 years. In fact, I doubt we have anyone today in the party outside Uhuru who understands more about what Jubilee stands for, and plans to do for Kenyans, than him”.

However, the embrace from Jubilee and Uhuru has come with a severe cost, that is, the fracturing of the nascent United Opposition.

This internal warfare was put on full display last Friday when the opposition convened three separate, high-profile events simultaneously.

While Uhuru and Matiang'i were at the Jubilee NDC in Nairobi, Martha Karua was declaring her presidential ambitions flanked by Gachagua, Kalonzo Musyoka, and others at the same time.

The events sent a clear message that the path to a united front is now more elusive than ever, a move that pundits and Ruto allies say works to the incumbent’s advantage.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

For Matiang'i, the baptism of fire is well and truly underway. The Jubilee option, while offering structure and national reach, comes with the heavy baggage of the feud with a powerful rival. As allies tease about potential tickets with figures like Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro, the former powerful CS finds himself in the political fight of his life, where his next move could determine not only his own fate but the very shape of the opposition facing the country’s 2027 election.