Is Raila planning to run against Ruto in 2027?

ODM leader Raila Odinga could be planning to run again for the presidency.

The veteran politician is busy rebuilding his 20-year-old party and recruiting new members as preparations for the 2027 elections begin to take shape in earnest.

Although Raila is currently working with President William Ruto in the broad-based government, he has consistently stated that this arrangement is only until 2027.

"While Mzee has not told us he will contest the presidency in 2027, there are people in the party who are telling him that he should prepare to run," a senior aide close to the ODM leader said.

The Orange Democratic Movement’s 20th anniversary celebrations, slated for next month in Mombasa, promise to be far more than just a birthday party.

Behind the fanfare lies a calculated political strategy to revitalise Raila’s political machine ahead of the approaching general election. The three-day event, billed as both a commemoration of resilience and a display of political strength, comes at a critical moment for the Raila-led party.

At the heart of the strategy is building a formidable political machine capable of negotiating for an equal share of power with President Ruto before and after the 2027 polls, including the coveted position of running mate. The anniversary comes as ODM quietly rolls out grassroots elections across the country, shoring up its internal structures.

Financially, the party is well-placed to fund its activities, having received Sh421 million from the Political Parties Fund this year. Additionally, ODM is pressing the government for arrears exceeding Sh12 billion, which it argues remain unpaid.

Insiders indicate that the Mombasa bonanza carries a dual purpose: projecting unity and strength within ODM while sending a message of readiness to rivals. Analysts see it as an early test of the party’s mobilisation capacity ahead of the polls. Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir, ODM’s deputy party leader, describes the fete as both a milestone and a statement of intent.

“It will be a show of 20 years of resilience, of being there for the people—20 years of social democracy,” Nassir told the Star in an exclusive interview, outlining the vision behind the celebrations.

The celebrations will not only highlight the party's past but also focus on engaging key demographics, particularly women and youth. A dedicated women's convention will emphasise the role of women in the struggle for democracy and social justice, while a youth concert will celebrate the Orange spirit. Additionally, a football tournament featuring clubs like Shabana FC, Gor Mahia, AFC Leopards, and Bandari FC will culminate in a match against "Chungwa Combined," a team of ODM officials and members.

Perhaps most telling is the founders' dinner, where political figures who have diverged from ODM's path, including President Ruto and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, have been invited. Nassir confirmed that Ruto and Kalonzo are among the invitees expected to attend.

“He [Ruto] is a founder member, so he is invited. We expect them to join us to celebrate our achievements,” he said.

Beneath the surface of unity and celebration, however, ODM confronts significant internal challenges. The party’s precarious position, officially part of the broad-based government yet struggling to maintain its opposition identity, has caused divisions among members. The union has created visible fissures, with some officials openly criticising the alliance. Secretary General Edwin Sifuna has even threatened walkouts from the deal over UDA's failure to implement the agreed-upon agenda fully.

Governor Nassir dismissed the tensions as natural, stating, “I don’t call them upheavals. Sometimes when you want to chew, you can end up biting your tongue or lip. It doesn’t mean that the tongue, the teeth, and the lips perform different functions.” 

For ODM insiders, the anniversary celebrations serve as an opportunity to seal the perceived cracks and present a unified front. They believe it will strategically position ODM as a mature political entity capable of managing political differences.

As per the schedule, the events point to preparations for the 2027 general elections. By inviting President Ruto and other Kenya Kwanza principals, it can be deduced that the party is keeping the door open for continued cooperation.

Ruto and Raila have been giving strong hints that their parties could be on the path to forming a coalition vehicle ahead of the elections. Quarterly Kenya Kwanza-ODM parliamentary group meetings to review the implementation of the two parties’ 10-point agenda underscore this working pact.

The regional build-up events preceding the main celebration offer insights into ODM's electoral strategy. An activation was held in Wajir on Saturday, with a similar one planned for Kisii this Friday, signaling ongoing grassroots mobilization efforts.

The focus on Kisii is particularly telling, given the region's emergence as a battleground due to ex-Interior CS Fred Matiang'i's presidential ambitions. Matiang'i has declared his intention to challenge President Ruto, potentially splitting votes that might otherwise go to an ODM-backed candidate.

In addition to the political maneuvers, ODM aims to reclaim its ideological roots with an emphasis on social democracy, inclusivity, and recognition of the “martyrs of the struggle.” The party has planned a “special remembrance for the martyrs of the struggle,” where hundreds who died in protests will be honoured.

Political analysts say that, geographically, the celebrations reveal a strategy focused on consolidating traditional strongholds while making inroads into contested territories.

The choice of Mombasa as the main host city is viewed as equally strategic, aiming to reinforce the Coast region as an ODM stronghold amid growing competition from Kenya Kwanza's outreach efforts.

“It appears they want to retain their bases for trade-ins during the 2027 coalition planning talks,” commented Prof Olang Sana of Maseno University. Hosting the main events in Mombasa aims to solidify support in the coastal region, where ODM faces challenges of local dissent.

Though not stated explicitly, the anniversary events will likely fuel discussions about political succession within ODM. As the party celebrates two decades of existence, questions about Raila Odinga's political future remain unresolved.

On this question, Nassir responded rhetorically, “Name for me one politician who is not a student of Raila.” The party seeks to utilise the events to simultaneously celebrate its past achievements, showcase its current leadership, and signal future directions.

Dagoretti North MP Beatrice Elachi stated, “We are celebrating the unity, commitment, the sacrifice, but more importantly, the inclusivity of Kenya.”

The anniversary parade will be judged not by the show the party puts up but by its effectiveness in strengthening ODM's position ahead of 2027. As preparations gather momentum, the coming weeks will be crucial in shaping the landscape of Kenyan politics and determining the direction ODM will take as it gears up for the next electoral battle.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

ODM's 20th anniversary celebrations represent far more than a simple birthday party. It portrays an image of a multifaceted political strategy aimed at addressing immediate challenges while positioning the party for the 2027 elections. The events allow ODM to simultaneously celebrate its past achievements, showcase its current leadership, and signal future directions. This would be all while managing complex internal and external political dynamics.