EXPLAINER: Why Kenya walks a tightrope as Ruto backs Ethiopia’s dam

President William Ruto on Tuesday attended the launch of Africa's largest hydroelectric dam in Ethiopia, which has faced opposition from upstream countries like Egypt and Sudan.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed formally launched the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which he says will help electrify the country as well as provide power to the region.

Egypt and Sudan have in the past protested the project and even lobbied countries like Kenya to discourage Addis Ababa from doing the Grand Dam.  

Just a week ago, Egypt and Sudan officials met and warned that the mega project represents a continuous threat to stability in the Eastern Nile Basin in accordance with international law.

In a joint communiqué released on Wednesday, September 3, following a consultative meeting of the foreign and water ministers of both countries in Cairo, the two governments warned that Ethiopia’s “unilateral steps” to fill and operate the dam entail serious consequences for the two downstream states.

“Sudanese and Egyptian water security constitutes an indivisible whole,” they said, and expressed “categorical rejection of any unilateral measures in the Eastern Nile Basin that may cause harm to their water interests.”

On August 22, 2025, Cairo launched a new round of diplomatic lobbying across Africa, positioning its outreach as a counterweight to Ethiopia’s policies on the Nile.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty then held phone calls with his counterparts in Sudan, South Sudan, Djibouti, Uganda, Kenya, and Somalia, Egyptian media reported.

Cairo has long claimed that Ethiopia’s filling and operation of the dam without a “legally binding agreement” undermines its water security according to several media reports.

Despite the protests by Ethiopia’s northern neighbours, President Ruto honoured an invite to be among the chief guests during Tuesday’s launch.

Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka, who served as Kenya’s assistant minister for Foreign Affairs between 2008 and 2013, said there is a likelihood that Cairo will react to Ruto’s presence in the event.

“Perhaps the President doesn’t care at a personal level what happens, but if not handled well, the natural consequence is that Egyptians will react. The country will definitely have issues,” he said.

Onyonka argued that if Cairo reacts, there will be issues with the historical and bilateral ties between the two nations.

“Egyptians have been our partner. Let’s look at how we handle diplomacy both at a regional level and globally,” the Senator said.

He added that, on the alternative, if Egypt fails to react, nothing stops East African countries from starting such a mega project around Lake Victoria in the future, having been inspired by Ethiopia.

President Ruto said Nairobi recognises the GERD as not just a nationalist project for Ethiopia but is representative of Africa’s ambition for clean energy, adding that it supports Kenya's Vision 20230 and Bottom-Up Agenda.

“We will be having an extended conversation with the Prime Minister, and we are ready to sign a power purchase agreement, and whatever is available from this dam, we are willing to buy it,” Ruto said during the event.

"While the GERD countries evoke differing perspectives among Nile Basin states, Kenya acknowledges the legitimate concerns of all parties, upstream and downstream, and supports the ongoing negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan."

Ethiopia, the continent's second most populous nation with a population of 120 million, sees the $5 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on a tributary of the River Nile as central to its ambitions for economic development, Reuters reports.

On the other hand, Egypt, with a population of about 108 million, depends on the Nile for about 90 per cent of its fresh water.

Egypt would continue to closely monitor developments on the Blue Nile and "exercise its right to take all the appropriate measures to defend and protect the interests of the Egyptian people," Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tamim Khallaf told Reuters on Monday.