Why by-elections are a litmus test for Ruto, Opposition

DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua with President William Ruto./FILE

The forthcoming November by-elections will be a litmus test for both President William Ruto and opposition leaders ahead of the 2027 General Elections.

The outcome, though on a small scale, will measure the strengths or weaknesses of either side going by the past events that preceded the last elections.

Both sides are eager to secure an empathic victor to assure their supporters that victory is possible, going by the behind-the-scenes discussions to jointly field candidates in certain areas.

Before the last General Elections of 2022, President Ruto, who was then Deputy President, showed his popularity after beating Raila-Uhuru Kenyatta-backed candidates in the Msambweni, Juja and Kiambaa constituencies.

The victories, especially in Mt Kenya, his then boss Kenyatta’s home turf, were an indicator that the mountain had shifted loyalty to the new king, while the losses in Kabuchai and Matungu gave him a hint on what to do to improve his stakes.

“The heavy loss in Matungu and Kabuchai to Mudavadi and Wetangula backed candidates, respectively, made Ruto to approach the two leaders and also areas where to invest efforts,” Kitutu Chache South MP Athony Kibagendi who was then with Ruto, says.

Kibagendi adds; “It’s now for the President to lose while these others will build from the outcome of the mini-polls. Even in areas they won’t win, the results will show their weaknesses or strength.”

Ruto now faces a herculean task to prove to his critics that his support has not waned even as opposition leaders led by his former deputy lead an onslaught on the UDA government. 

Already, Ruto’s UDA and Raila’s ODM party have a cut a deal to have constituencies of Kasipul in Homabay and Ugunja in Siaya left for ODM, while UDA will fly the alliance’s flag in Banisa in Mandera and Malava in Kakamega.

ODM will also support UDA for the Baringo senatorial seat that fell vacant following the death of Senator William Cheptumo.

On Saturday, UDA announced it had settled on Leo Muriuki Muthende as the Mbeere North candidate following a consensus reached by eight other aspirants who stepped down in his favour after consultations within the party.

“As a party, we are delighted that all our aspirants have agreed to endorse one candidate. This shows the strength of our democracy and unity of purpose,” Deputy President Kithure Kindiki said in the company of Public Service CS Geoffrey Ruku.

On the other side, opposition leaders are yet to agree on whether to support a joint candidate or field separately in Mbeere North with Rigathi Gachagua’s DCP and Justin Muturi’s DP eyeing the seat.

In Nyamira, a meeting held by seven opposition leaders resolved to allow former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i to field candidates in three wards of Nyamaiya, Nyansiongo, and Ekerenyo.

Matiang’i who is yet to settle on a party, however, indicated that he will support candidates sponsored by the area Governor Amos Nyaribo-led UPA and that he had identified candidates based on an opinion poll.

The opposition chiefs are also in talks with a view to having Eugene Wamalwa’s DAP-Kenya to field a candidate to take on UDA in the Malava constituency, with the parties likely to leave Banisa to Gachagua’s DCP.