Why reality check awaits firebrand anti-Ruto, Raila team

THE reality of Kenyan politics could soon hit hard the firebrand youthful leaders threatening to take on the old guard, as they spearhead what they call “generational change politics.”

Buoyed by an unprecedented clamour for good governance from Gen Z, the youthful leaders drawn from across the political divide have been rolling out countrywide political meetings.

The Star has established that this weekend the team will be in Busia county.

However, analysts warn that realpolitik could soon scatter the group even before the 2027 polls.

First, there is doubt as to whether the team can survive without their political godfathers.

Some members are known to sit in the kitchen cabinets of prominent opposition figures, fueling skepticism about their true commitment to the new cause.

Critics believe their endgame is to convince the entire grouping to eventually align with the opposition through their patrons. Some members of the Kenya Moja movement are closely tied to powerful figures.

For instance, Kitutu Chache South MP Antony Kibagendi and Kitutu Masaba MP Clive Gisairo are close associates of former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i, while Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamuchomba is allied to impeached former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

Funyula MP Wilberforce Oundo, an ODM legislator, has often defied his party line, including voting to save Gachagua when the opposition campaigned to remove him.

The group also lacks a financial war chest to mount national campaigns.

Kenyan politics has proven to be very cash-intensive, with bigwigs mounting presidential campaigns operating even seven choppers on a single day.

Hiring a helicopter costs between Sh270,000 to 400,000 per hour, depending on the distance and type of machine. 

While the leaders’ defiance against the broad-based government has won the group national attention and applause from sections of the public, analysts say a reality check is fast approaching.

Ex-political detainee Wafula Buke told the Star that survival will demand painful lessons.

“In that team, we have those who are self-made, who know the science of rising through the ranks—those ones will be the most important cogs in that system. They know the science of getting power and keeping it,” Buke said.

“Those who have risen through patronage will now start learning that disengaging from their bosses exposes them to the challenge of realising it is not easy to run a national machine. Building a machine is not a joke—it is not about following. They must work hard to establish grassroots networks.”

The Kenya Moja movement has intensified nationwide engagements, signaling growing momentum that could see it evolve into a fully fledged political party ahead of the 2027 elections.

Its leaders include Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, MPs Antony Kibagendi (Kitutu Chache South), Babu Owino (Embakasi East), Gathoni Wamuchomba (Githunguri), Caleb Amisi (Saboti), Obadiah Barongo (Bomachoge Borabu), Clive Gisairo (Kitutu Masaba), Joshua Kimilu (Kaiti), and Wilberforce Oundo (Funyula).

Buke argues that Kenyan politics is still heavily anchored on patronage networks, and without the backing of established party leaders, many of the rebels risk losing ground as the elections draw near.

“I think they have a chance. That opportunity is not outside them, because the so-called Gen Z lacks leadership. If they are lucky enough to connect with them and be the agents of their vision, then they will be inheriting an existing organ that can make up their deficit,” Buke said.

“If they don’t connect, they will have the burden of starting from scratch.”

Veteran activist Suba Churchill warned Kenya Moja against overreliance on the Gen Z vote.

“There is this wishful thinking that the youths are tribe-less, leaderless and that come 2027 they will vote for people closer to their generation. That is part of what is misleading the so-called Kenya Moja,” Suba said.

“If Kenya Moja is founded on that kind of wishful thinking, then they will be in for a rude shock.”

He added: “Those young people, despite the remarkable progress they have achieved holding government to account, will in 2027 operate like any other child in a polygamous family—retreating to the house of their mother when dusk sets in.”

This means leaders such as Babu Owino and Edwin Sifuna will have to face voters alone should they break from ODM, without the political cover of Raila Odinga.

Babu, for instance, is expected to face incumbent Johnson Sakaja in the Nairobi governor’s race alongside Embakasi North MP James Gakuya and former Governor Evans Kidero.

Analysts warn ethnic arithmetic will likely play a defining role in the outcome.

Still, Kenya Moja’s organisers insist they are laying the foundation for a broad-based movement that could redefine the political landscape.

“Our end game is to have a better Kenya, where everybody feels they belong, where families can live in decency, and where everyone has the right to express their opinion without being killed, maimed, or abducted; a better Kenya where we respect and uphold the constitution and human rights,” Oundo told the Star.

On transforming into a political party, he said their options are open. “Anything can have a life of its own. Let it metamorphose the way it goes, let it grow the way it goes. Whatever happens, let it happen,” he said.

Meanwhile, the outfit—known for its anti-government stance—has intensified consultative forums and grassroots mobilisation across key regions, with speculation it could evolve into a full-fledged political party.

“They are coming to Funyula on Sunday for a church service and youth engagements,” Oundo confirmed.

Formed three months ago as a platform for inclusive development and accountability, Kenya Moja has quickly captured national attention. Youthful MPs drawn from across the political divide have been rallying citizens in Nairobi and Western Kenya around what they describe as a “third force” to challenge entrenched political blocs.

“This is a generational struggle, just like we transitioned from colonialism to African rule or from apartheid to black leadership. Change is knocking,” Saboti MP Caleb Amisi said.