The looming by-elections have ignited fresh turf wars within President William Ruto’s UDA, Raila Odinga’s ODM and Rigathi Gachagua’s DCP as the three camps grapple with tense nomination battles.
With 23 by-elections set for November 27, the scramble to field candidates has turned messy.
Aspirant lists are swelling, party offices are under siege by hopefuls and accusations of favouritism are already flying—raising fears of bitter internal fallouts.
Analysts say the way Ruto, Raila, and Gachagua handle the nomination headaches will be a test of their grip on their coalitions.
A botched process, they warn, could fuel internal wars and reshape the political landscape ahead of 2027.
In ODM, rival factions are already trading accusations of favouritism and backroom deals, especially in Kasipul and Ugenya where the party’s ticket assures one of the coveted seats.
Kasipul seat, left vacant following April assassination of MP Ong’ondo Were, has attracted 16 aspirants, including the late MP’s son Boyd Were.
Boyd is perceived as the party’s favourite.
Other aspirants who have expressed interest for the seat include Tom Awino, Samwel Owida, Philip Aroko, Victor Mbaka, Rateng Otiende, Tom Sipul, Ajoh Mbuta, Ken Okoth Jam, Joash Aloo, Swaleh Omondi, Okindo Majiwa, Colins Otieno, Newton Ogada, Edward Otula and Allan Odera.
Robert Money Mabior is also in the race as an independent candidate.
The contest that has attracted Wenwa Odinga's brother-in-law, Newton Ogada.
While long-serving stalwarts led by ODM chairman Gladys Wanga are pushing for Were’s son to be rewarded, some Raila kin are reportedly rooting for Ogada.
Already, reports of secret lobbying and pressure from regional kingpins are heightening tension in ODM’s base.
This happens while aspirants across the political divide have jointly called for transparent, free and fair nominations, warning that flawed primaries could cost the party.
Some have threatened to run as independents if parties impose candidates, a move that could fracture voting blocs and weaken party strongholds.
On Tuesday, a group led aspirant Tom Okoko warned that handpicking of candidates may lead to voter apathy.
“There is already a force trying to impose a candidate on the people of Kasipul, we are appealing to the leadership of the ODM party to ensure free and fair elections,” he said.
Ruto’s UDA has also seen aspirants demand nothing but free and fair primaries to decide the flag bearer in Baringo Senate and Mbeere North constituency races.
Baringo remained vacant following the death of former lawmaker William Cheptumo while Mbeere North’s MP Geoffrey Ruku was appointed to the broad-based Cabinet.
In Mbeere North, the ruling party said it will field a single candidate through consensus or party primaries.
Loyalists to the President were pushing for handpicked candidates, while grassroots voices insist on open contests to avoid rebellion Mt Kenya
Deputy President and UDA deputy party leader Kithure Kindiki met all aspirants seeking the ticket alongside Ruku and Embu Governor and UDA chairperson Cecily Mbarire.
The aspirants are Leonard Muriuki, Murage Njagagua, Muriuki Njagagua, Justus Mate, Konji Waya, Stephen Makindu and Daniel Bongo.
"The United Democratic Alliance party will, by consensus or party primaries, settle on a single candidate to fly our flag in the upcoming by-election to elect the next Member of Parliament for Mbeere North constituency," Kindiki said.
The meeting resolved to first pursue consensus in identifying the candidate, with competitive primaries as a fallback if no agreement is reached.
Leaders also agreed on a joint campaign programme to be rolled out once the nominee is unveiled, aiming to project party unity and mobilise grassroots support across the constituency.
DCP has already presented two candidates, Aden Mohamed for Banisa constituency and Edgar Busiega for Malava constituency.
“These are young people. DCP is a party that believes in nurturing young leadership and the party leader and the Nec have committed to setting aside resources to ensure DCP wins more than 50 per cent of the available by-election seats,” deputy party leader Cleophas Malala said.
The Banisa and Malava by-elections were triggered by the deaths of Banisa MP Kulow Hassan in March 2023 and Malava MP Moses Injendi earlier this year.
“As DCP, we have decided that we are going to field candidates in all the by-elections. We want to urge the IEBC commissioners to hasten the process of ensuring we have the respective pending by-elections,”
The months-old party is however yet to settle on the candidate to fly its flag in Mbeere North where there are already competing interests.
Observers say how the parties manage the crowded fields will not only determine their success in the mini-polls but also signal their preparedness for bigger contests.
Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi said the parties must demonstrate democracy by allowing the people’s voice to carry the day.
“Parties must ensure that democracy prevails during the nominations, bungling nominations at this stage may be costly in the coming polls,” Mwangangi said.
INSTANT ANALYSIS
Observers say how the parties manage the crowded fields will not only determine their success in the mini-polls but also signal their preparedness for bigger contests.
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