Inside three-pronged battle for the heart and soul of Western vote bloc

Political battle for the influential western Kenya vote bloc has erupted into a fierce four-pronged contest, with each side staking claim to the region’s nearly three million votes.

On one front is President William Ruto and his broad-based partner Raila Odinga. Opposing them is a resurgent opposition wing led by DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa and DCP deputy party leader Cleophas Malala.

Then there is the DAP-K rebel faction led by Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya and youthful Mumias East MP Peter Salasya.

Also angling for control of the country’s second-biggest vote bloc is the nascent Kenya Moja team, spearheaded by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and Saboti MP Caleb Amisi.

According to the 2022 voter register, the region has 2.2 million voters: Kakamega (743,736), Bungoma (559,850), Busia (351,048), Vihiga (272,409) and Trans Nzoia (339,622).

This means the Luhya nation, Kenya’s second largest community, could wield a decisive “tyranny of numbers” in 2027.

At stake is the political heart and soul of a region long courted but often sidelined when power is shared.

Once a stronghold of Raila’s ODM, the region is now fractured, with loyalties shifting ahead of the 2027 polls. For years, Raila commanded near-absolute loyalty across Western counties, his liberation and reform message resonating deeply.

But cracks are showing. His truce with Ruto has emboldened emerging leaders to chart their own paths.

Sifuna, known for fiery rhetoric and unapologetic stances, is positioning himself as Western's kingpin. He is galvanising the region alongside other youthful leaders.

The Nairobi senator has been traversing counties, leading empowerment programmes targeting women and youths. Last week, he led an empowerment drive in Saboti constituency. In July, he held a similar event in Kabuchai and is now planning a major drive in Busia to popularise Kenya Moja.

The movement is quietly gaining traction, especially among voters weary of being pawns in national power games.

“Something is cooking. This is the team that is coming to save Kenyans. People want something new, something awakening,” Amisi told the Star.

Ruto, never one to waste a vacuum, has made significant inroads with strategic appointments of Western leaders and consistent economic charm offensives.

National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi are selling Kenya Kwanza as Western’s political future.

“The Luhya community stands a better chance of succeeding President William Ruto in 2032. I have therefore urged the community to rally behind Ruto’s second term bid in 2027 to realise this. Our unity and rallying behind the President to secure a second term would motivate him to hand over the mantle to one of our own," Wetang'ula said.

On the opposition front, Wamalwa and Malala are leading the “United Opposition” brigade, presenting themselves as an alternative after years of what they term raw deals from  Ruto and Raila.

Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi has, however, poured cold water on the “Western awakening,” calling it a normal pre-election phenomenon.

“There is nothing happening in Western. These are normal pre-match activities. People are entitled to their actions, opinions and freedom of association,” Osotsi told the Star.

“I know this has always been the situation before elections — leaders form new outfits but eventually align to a national agenda. The people of the region want to be part of the bigger agenda of the country, not selfish, sectarian ones.”

The ODM deputy party leader said the fierce battle could weaken the region’s bargaining power.

“My only fear is that such schemes create confusion among our people and eventually lead to weaker bargaining power as we near elections,” Osotsi said.

He urged disgruntled ODM members not to bolt out but to push from within. “The solution is not forming new formations; it is fighting from within."

Natembeya has been working closely with other opposition luminaries, including Kalonzo and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

However, friction between Natembeya and Eugene threatens their unity. Eugene has publicly accused Natembeya and Salasya of trying to wreck DAP-K from within.