How Raila silent gameplan could change 2027 matrix

A silent push for Raila Odinga’s 2027 presidential run against President William Ruto is likely to trigger political tremors and re-alignments. 

While the ODM leader is yet to go public with his 2027 intentions, there are credible reports that the former prime minister is under immense pressure to make a sixth stab at the presidency.

Behind the push is reportedly retired President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Jubilee Party – who are hell-bent on frustrating President William Ruto’s re-election.

Observers believe the move could throw the current political script into disarray, with Ruto emerging as a major casualty.

Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi said Raila’s exit from Ruto camp will end the President’s re-election hopes, adding that Ruto needs the ODM boss to survive beyond one term. 

“His comeback is to the disadvantage of Ruto, Luo vote, which was to come in handy for the President’s re-election. Now with Mt Kenya gone, the issue of one-term could become a big reality,” Mwangangi told the Star on phone. 

By the next election, Raila will be 82-years old – an issue that has sparked debate – but his influence could still tilt the scale.

His grip on the Nyanza region remains unshaken.

His influence in Nairobi, Coast, parts of Western and North Eastern still holds water.

Ruto has been banking on Raila’s support to retain his seat, especially after losing grip of his Mt Kenya support, which propelled his 2022 victory.

Many watchers believe without Raila in the Ruto equation, getting a second term will be an uphill task.

ODM executive director Oduor Ong’wen said the party will field a candidate against Ruto but was non-committal on the flag bearer.

“As a party we will have a candidate but we have not yet reached there,” he told the Star. 

Raila’s candidature will also shake the united opposition.

If Uhuru and his Jubilee party were to back Raila, Gachagua will have to contend with a fragmented central Kenya.

The likes of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka may also be confronted with difficult realities.

Because of trust issues, Kalonzo may feel uncomfortable working with Raila and teaming up with Ruto may be an option for the former vice president.

For Gachagua, it appears the door for a reunion with Ruto is permanently shut.

He could also opt to embrace Raila to make his former boss a first-term President.

Strategists pushing the move believe that a Raila-Mt Kenya coalition could form a formidable force capable of denying Ruto the numbers in 2027.

The Star has established that the former premier is seriously entertaining a possibility of sixth stab at the presidency.

According to the high-placed source, Raila’s recent announcement of leading a Saba Saba rally at Kamkunji was part of the attempt to reinvent himself.

His call for national conclave dialogue, according to those close to him, is also part of the strategy for life outside Ruto’s cycles.

Ruto’s administration, bogged with high cost of living, tax protests and youth disenfranchisement, could fuel Raila’s quest.

Critics, including former allies and analysts, have poured cold water on the idea branding it an exercise in futility.

University don Prof Gitile Naituli while dismissing Raila’s chances, said even if Raila remains popular in traditional bastions such as Nyanza and parts of Nairobi, his national appeal has waned.

“Raila has caused an irreparable damage. There is no magic that can make him get even a quarter of his former supporters,” he said.

“For the first time, people saw a Raila pattern – which is selfish.”

Mwangangi also agrees, calling on Kenyans to see the purported Raila’s candidature as a project and a ‘spoiler’.

“It is a spoiler candidature, Kenyans should know. You cannot donate your top party officials and now come back purporting to challenge the same person,” he said.

ODM insiders say some of Raila’s allies, who have moved to Ruto’s administration, may not be willing to bolt out.

Some argue Raila's sixth attempt would be suicidal as a number of his bases have shifted to Ruto or at the very least, divided.

Some of Raila allies in Ruto's Cabinet have openly said they will support Ruto in 2027. They include John Mbadi (Treasury), Hassan Joho (Mining), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy) and Wycliffe Oparanya (Co-operatives).

Prof Makau Mutua, who was heading Raila’s 2022 presidential campaign think-tank has also joined Ruto as his senior advisor on constitutional affairs.

Last month, Joho assured Ruto of full support going into 2027 adding that coastal region will rally behind his re-election bid.

“I want to assure of our utmost support, we will do everything and bring our leaders together so that we move forward to 2027 and to 2032, that is our commitment,” Joho said.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

Raila, having made five unsuccessful attempts at the Presidency, is widely expected to rally his support base behind a political formation in 2027. Apart from having some of his trusted lieutenants serving in Ruto’s Cabinet, the ODM boss has also entered an MoU with the ruling UDA, identifying 10 areas of cooperation.