OMWENGA: Parliament must reject likely desperate efforts rig elections

The opposition coming together in such a formidable force could make it extremely difficult to manipulate the 2027 elections, as critics allege happened during the 2007 polls. Confronted with this reality of opposition unity, there are suggestions that some political players may be considering a strategy to influence the outcome of the next election, though in a less blatant manner than before.

This strategy reportedly involves behind-the-scenes efforts to encourage at least one major presidential contender to break away from the opposition and run independently.

Such a scenario could lead to a run-off in the 2027 elections, as no single candidate would likely achieve the constitutionally mandated 50 per cent plus one vote. In that case, the breakaway candidate could then endorse President William Ruto in the run-off.

While controversial, this is not an unsophisticated plan. However, barring unforeseen developments, all indications suggest strong opposition momentum that could challenge Ruto’s re-election in 2027, regardless of political deals, and there appears to be only one opposition figure who might fit the profile of such a spoiler candidate. Even in a run-off, the electorate’s choice could still prevail.

It is against this backdrop that the draft Assumption of the Office of the President and Transition of Executive Authority Bill, 2025, has sparked concern. Critics view the Bill as an attempt by political operatives to use legal means to bypass constitutional safeguards.

The constitution already provides clear guidelines on how a president assumes office, including the transfer of powers and security after a president-elect is sworn in.

However, the draft law reportedly proposes granting a declared president-elect access to presidential powers and security immediately, even if the declaration is under legal challenge. Such a move, critics warn, could enable misuse of power during the transition period.

There are also concerns about the Bill’s provision allowing the Chief Registrar to administer the oath of office, a role constitutionally reserved for the Chief Justice or Deputy Chief Justice. Observers suggest this could undermine the judiciary’s role in safeguarding the integrity of presidential transitions.

Furthermore, the Bill allows the transition committee’s activities to remain confidential and imposes heavy penalties, a maximum fine of Sh10 million or up to seven years in prison, for non-compliance. Critics argue this secrecy could hinder transparency and accountability.

It remains to be seen whether Parliament will support or reject the proposed legislation. One hopes there will be enough sober-minded lawmakers to recognize the implications and act in the best interest of constitutional democracy.

The writer is a political commentator based in the US.