Rivalries mar opposition efforts to pick flagbearer

Details have emerged about a high-stakes operation within Kenya’s opposition to identify a strong candidate who can topple President William Ruto in the 2027 general election.

A core team of technocrats, legal minds and political strategists is evaluating possible flagbearers using a rigorous matrix that considers voter mobilisation capacity, regional influence, national appeal, political experience and projected voter contribution.

Topping the list of contenders are Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i — each bringing unique strengths but also carrying polarising baggage.

“The exercise is ongoing. We’re looking at several parameters to ensure we field the most formidable candidate,” a senior Wiper official told the Star.

The evaluation team is expected to submit a comprehensive report outlining the strengths and weaknesses of each aspirant. 

This assessment will guide opposition principals in selecting a joint flagbearer.

There is, however, no clear timeline for the final decision.

Behind the scenes, tensions are rising as factions lobby aggressively, pushing narratives to elevate their preferred candidates.

The broader opposition coalition comprises Wiper, Jubilee, Democratic Party, DAP-K, PNU, NARC-Kenya and the Farmers Party.

It includes power players such as Martha Karua, Eugene Wamalwa, Peter Munya, Justin Muturi, and Irungu Nyakera, all jockeying for influence.

Loyalist seeks ‘his turn’ Wiper Party is firmly backing Kalonzo, who has thrice stepped aside for ODM leader Raila Odinga and deputised him twice in his presidential runs. His allies say it’s now his turn.

“Kalonzo’s candidacy is non-negotiable,” said Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo.

Kalonzo brings extensive experience — having served as Vice President and Foreign Affairs Minister. But critics say his repeated withdrawals have weakened his brand as a serious contender and his support base remains largely confined to Ukambani.

Still, political analyst Kaburu Kinoti says Kalonzo is a credible option.

“He’s not a controversial leader and his experience is unmatched. He may likely team up with Matiang’i for broader appeal.”

Impeached outsider with a bloc

Gachagua is also in the mix, despite his impeachment and bitter falling out with Ruto His allies say he can deliver the crucial Mt Kenya vote bloc, which they estimate exceeds six million voters.

“Politics is about numbers. Each leader must show how many votes they are bringing. Whoever brings the most determines the flagbearer,” said Gatanga MP Edward Muriu.

Gachagua has rebranded himself as a regional Mt Kenya kingpin and is courting disillusioned Kenya Kwanza voters.

However, his national appeal remains in question.

“If you want to be a presidential candidate, you must look beyond your region and community,” Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni cautioned.

“Ask yourself: which other community can support you beyond your own?”

As it stands because of his impeachment, the law bars Gachagua from vying for public office.

This means the former DP’s political future lies in the outcome of his ongoing legal battle to overturn his impeachment.

Technocrat riding a Gen Z wave

Backed by Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i is gaining momentum.

He was Uhuru’s “super minister” and Mr Fixit. He was also Education CS.

He enjoys strong support in his Gusii homeland and growing appeal among Gen Zs, who view him as tough, efficient and independent.

“Matiang’i, you either come out or we come for you. We need you for President in 2027, na sio tafadhali [and we’re not asking politely],” read one viral post on X.

Kioni praised Matiang’i’s national stature.

“Even Gachagua himself has acknowledged Matiang’i’s track record. Matiang’i resonates with Kenyans across Coast, Northeastern, MtmKenya and Nyanza,” he said.

But Matiang’i’s critics accuse him of being a proxy for Uhuru, and cite controversies from his time as Interior CS — including the deportation of Miguna Miguna, the Sh1.5 billion Ruaraka land saga and alleged extrajudicial killings — as major liabilities.

“If we’re to follow Chapter Six of the Constitution [on integrity] as intended, candidates like these wouldn’t be on the ballot,” political analyst Martin Andati said.

Gen Z should be aware of the tough-guy candidate’s drawbacks, he said.

“Kenyans are not scrutinising their leaders enough.”

As the search for a flagbearer continues, the opposition faces a delicate balancing act; uniting fractured parties, managing egos, and confronting a youth-led political awakening that is reshaping the rules of engagement.

Whether they can settle on a candidate who inspires cross-regional support and captures the spirit of the moment may well determine if 2027 brings change — or continuity.