Following the display of opposition unity in the bid to unseat President William Ruto, focus has now shifted to how different presidential ticket scenarios could play out ahead of the 2027 polls.
Political pundits and observers argue that beyond the rallying call to make Ruto a one-term president, the real battle will be won or lost based on the pairing of the presidential ticket.
While the growing alliance brings together at least five major opposition figures, three—including former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i—are viewed as frontrunners for the ticket.
The others are veteran politician and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and People’s Liberation Party boss Martha Karua, assuming former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua opts to play a kingmaker role.
Although Gachagua has also declared his presidential ambitions, as he continues to challenge his removal from office in court. He maintains that his legal battles may stretch beyond 2027, potentially giving him a chance to exact political revenge on Ruto. However, such a ticket would raise significant integrity and credibility concerns.
If the former DP sacrifices his ambition for the sake of mounting a formidable opposition, analysts foresee him playing a pivotal kingmaker role in 2027.
Should he not vie for the presidency, Karua, Kalonzo and Matiang’i would likely benefit from his political goodwill—setting the stage for a titanic electoral showdown against Ruto.
While many argue Kalonzo may reject playing second fiddle due to his seniority and control over the Ukambani vote bloc, there’s also a school of thought that 2027 may demand monumental sacrifices.
“The 2027 presidential ticket will be about making sacrifices by the principals so that we get the best team to send Ruto home in the first round,” Embakasi North MP James Gakuya said.
“There will be scientific research done to pair different candidates. Once we analyse all relevant factors, including vote potential, the team will decide on the presidential flagbearer and running mate.”
Kalonzo first ran for president in 2007 but lost to then President Mwai Kibaki. In the 2013 and 2017 polls, he served as Raila Odinga’s running mate. In 2022, he was promised the position of chief minister had Raila won the election.
His allies believe the 2027 race is his to lose, citing public dissatisfaction with the Kenya Kwanza administration and solid backing from vote-rich regions.
One possible opposition scenario features Kalonzo as the joint flagbearer with Karua as his running mate, intended to lock the Mt Kenya vote.
However, Karua’s perceived underperformance in the region during the 2022 election, despite being Raila’s running mate, raises questions about her influence.
Political risk analyst Dismas Mokua argues that the opposition’s 2027 presidential ticket must resonate with Gen Z and millennial voters.
“The 2027 polls will be won or lost on how well alliances appeal to the youth, who will form the majority voting bloc,” he said.
Mokua adds that both the opposition and Kenya Kwanza face challenges in addressing the concerns of Gen Z and must work to make them feel included in top leadership.
If Gachagua does not run, and Kalonzo and Karua are considered as replacements, Matiang’i’s entry complicates the equation.
There is a possibility that opposition heavyweights may back a Matiang’i ticket—either as president or running mate—after demonstrating political and financial capacity to lead a campaign against an incumbent.
Mokua bets on his key reforms in public service, which largely benefited young people, as a way of appeasing Gen Z.
The Jubilee Party, now fronting Matiang’i for 2027, has ramped up efforts to position the former CS as the most viable opposition candidate.
Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni recently held talks with David Murathe, vice-chairperson and key ally of former President Uhuru Kenyatta, signalling growing support.
Matiang’i–Karua ticket
This no-nonsense duo is known for their efficiency and public service track record. Karua, a former Justice Minister in the Kibaki government, brings the gender card and potential Mt Kenya support.
Though she previously opposed Gachagua, the former minister has now joined forces with him to solidify the Mt Kenya vote. In the 2022 election, she delivered fewer than one million votes in the region.
Gachagua, on the other hand, secured 3.5 million votes in support of Ruto.
If Karua and Gachagua succeed in rallying more than 80 per cent of the region, their support could be decisive.
With Karua as the presidential candidate and Matiang’i as running mate, the region might unite to punish Ruto and push for a one-term presidency. However, voter apathy could emerge if Matiang’i heads the ticket with Karua as deputy.
Still, some analysts believe a ticket backed by both Uhuru and Gachagua would be formidable and could flip the race.
Matiang’i is expected to secure nearly one million Kisii and Nyamira votes, with another million from the diaspora. Former Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu affirmed Matiang’i’s bid, saying:
“Dr Fred Matiang’i is offering hope at a critical time. He speaks a language that resonates with Kenyans and brings a sense of connection and reassurance.”
Wambugu appears to have quit the Gachagua camp, seeking to recapture his Nyeri Town constituency seat in 2027.
Matiang’i–Kalonzo ticket
This ticket assumes Gachagua sits out and backs Matiang’i, with Kalonzo as running mate—or vice versa.
If Gachagua, Karua and Uhuru support the arrangement, the opposition could lock Mt Kenya, Ukambani and Kisii, securing about 10 million votes.
However, concerns remain that Kalonzo—who recently marked 40 years in politics may be reluctant to deputise Matiang’i again.
Ruto’s camp is also reportedly eyeing Kalonzo to split the opposition vote in 2027, especially as Mt Kenya support dwindles.
Political analyst Alexander Nyamboga said: “If Raila decides to run, Ruto may pick Kalonzo as his running mate, given the loss of Mt Kenya’s support.”
Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka praised the potential ticket: “If Matiang’i becomes president, he won’t take the country lower than it is. If Kalonzo is president, I will sleep well.”
During a church service on May 4, Matiang’i promised to restore faith in government if elected: “Give us this mandate, and you will see results. We must clean up our country and restore faith in government.”
While both candidates face past integrity concerns—Matiang’i with the Ruaraka land scandal and Kalonzo with the Yatta National Youth Service farm—neither has been formally charged.
Gachagua recently challenged Kalonzo to deliver four million votes, promising Mt Kenya would add another 10 million.
According to the 2022 Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission register, the Ukambani region has 1.6 million voters across Kitui, Makueni and Machakos counties, with another 1.4 million Akamba votes across the country.
Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi emphasised unity: “It doesn’t matter who the flagbearer is. What matters is that the opposition sticks together and identifies the best candidate to face Ruto.”
On the other hand, Matiang’i still faces the challenge of uniting the Gusii region.
MPs from Kenya Kwanza and Azimio camps have pledged support, signalling shifting loyalties.
“We have decided that Matiang’i will bring us together. We’ve been mocked for too long,” North Mugirango MP Joash Nyamoko said.
However, Belgut MP Nelson Koech doubts Matiang’i’s readiness: “He should start by running for MP to understand grassroots politics. Look at Kibaki and Ruto—both spent decades before ascending to the presidency.”
Koech also predicted internal fallout among opposition principals due to inflated egos:
“Matiang’i won’t deputise Gachagua or Kalonzo. Kalonzo has deputised before—will he do it again?”
Jubilee’s push for Matiang’I may help him broaden support beyond Gusii. Kioni has previously said that Mt Kenya doesn't need to field a presidential or deputy candidate:
“As a region, we don’t want the presidency or deputy presidency. We want a candidate with a national outlook.”
He added:“Matiang’i must run on a national party. We’ve learned from Kibaki and Uhuru that national parties provide stability and legitimacy.”
“Matiang’i has shown real interest in building our party. To deliver any political promise, we need a strong national party.”
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