Why Ruto may be forced to revisit deal with Kindiki

Political undercurrents in Mt Kenya East threaten to reshape President William Ruto’s power plan for the next election. A determined push by the Kalonzo Musyoka-Rigathi Gachagua axis to stamp out his influence in the region could throw a spanner into the works.

At the heart of this storm is Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, whose political future now hangs in the balance. The once-unshakable DP finds himself facing serious competition in his own backyard, raising questions over whether Ruto will stick with him as his 2027 running mate.

Gachagua is working with bigwigs from the region, notably sacked CSs Mithika Linturi and Justin Muturi, which could undermine Kindiki’s influence. 

With Mt Kenya’s support for the administration waning, the President may have to rethink his ticket, putting the DP’s position on the line. 

Pundits observe that Ruto could be forced to make a cold political calculation in favour of a deputy who can secure him a 2027 win. Already, there is a concerted push for Ruto to have a deputy from Nyanza or the Western region, on the basis that he has lost Mt Kenya.

Kindiki’s troubles stem from a growing perception that he is yet to steer his Mt Kenya East base to fully back Kenya Kwanza. Critics argue that despite his high-profile role in government, the region has remained restive politically, in the face of little tangible development.

The President has shown before that he is willing to cut loose allies when they become liabilities (as seen with Gachagua).

But Kindiki is no ordinary figure – he has been a steadfast loyalist and a key enforcer of Ruto’s agenda, particularly on security matters. 

Imenti North MP Rahim Dawood asserted that the region is not drifting away as claimed.

“I don’t think so. We support the President and his deputy. We have been engaging them to push for projects,” the lawmaker said. 

Yet, if the political cost of keeping him outweighs the benefits, Ruto may have to go back to the drawing board.

On the flipside, if Kindiki can rally support in Mt Kenya East and initiate visible development projects, he may yet salvage his position.

Those for the DP state that dumping him would send shockwaves through the administration and risk alienating other allies.

Patrick Munene, Chuka Igambang’ombe MP, says the region is now content. 

“How do we leave a government that we are at the top to go and look for another government as followers? No one can convince us to leave President William Ruto,” Munene said. 

He added, “Prof Kindiki is our shining light and so far, he has done a great job of assisting the President deliver on the Kenya Kwanza Administration’s commitments. That is the kind of support the President lacked for two years. That is the kind of support DP Kindiki will render to the President in 2027 and beyond. A loyal, hardworking, intelligent, uniting, diligent and consistent principal assistant.”

Munene is emphatic the President and his deputy have Mt Kenya’s backing. 

“Politics is all about ambition and I agree, but for anyone to imagine that the people of Mt Kenya East having got the position of a Deputy President – a first since independence – will abandon Kithure Kindiki and follow them, that’s not ambition, it’s being delusional.

“We are solidly behind President William Ruto and we will support him and his deputy to deliver the best development projects and programmes for our people of Mt Kenya Region and the country as a whole.”

Former Igembe North MP Maoka Maore downplayed the notion that Kindiki is being directly targeted, but acknowledged widespread disillusionment.

“The grumbling isn’t just in Meru. It’s nationwide,” he says.

“We’re entering the third budget cycle with nothing to show. The government started on the wrong footing and Kindiki, as a key figure, hasn’t turned things around.”

The discontent is compounded by claims that the region has been sidelined in top appointments.

“Meru has no CEOs in this administration,” Maore notes. 

“But is that Kindiki’s fault? No. The problem is weak parliamentary leadership, more focused on handouts than pushing for development.”

His remarks suggest a split in blame. While Kindiki bears some responsibility as Ruto’s deputy, local MPs also shoulder criticism for failing to advocate effectively. 

The resurgence of Gachagua’s influence also looms large over Kindiki’s political survival.

Gachagua, though impeached as Deputy President, retains a loyal following in Mt Kenya and his alliance with Kalonzo signals a direct challenge to Ruto’s grip on the region.

Tigania East MP Mpuru Aburi warns against premature judgments but hints at the risks of inaction.

“Let’s give Kindiki time to work,” he says. 

“If he takes the trajectory we are forcing him to, he could end up like Riggy G.”

Gachagua was impeached last November for, among other reasons, advancing tribal politics and for allegedly staging opposition within the Kenya Kwanza ranks.

Mugambi Imanyara, a fierce critic of the government and secretary general of the Devolution Empowerment Party, said Kindiki should face the people in 2027 “and see if he can win on his own”.

His scathing attack underscores the political danger Kindiki faces, adding that the government hasn’t delivered its promises.

“This government’s only ‘achievement’ in Mt Kenya is impeaching Gachagua and Governor Kawira Mwangaza, both against the people’s will,” Imanyara said.

“They’ve delivered nothing else.”  

His words reflect a deeper resentment that Kindiki is seen as an outsider imposed on the region rather than a leader who earned his place. 

If even his own backyard rejects him, Ruto may find it difficult to justify keeping him as deputy.

For Ruto, the equation is simple but delicate.

“If Mt Kenya East, a crucial voting bloc, continues drifting away, he may need to sacrifice Kindiki to appease the restless base,” Prof Gitile Naituli observed.

He said the grand question is: Kindiki has been a dependable ally, but can Ruto afford to retain him if his home support weakens?

The next election may require a different political master plan. 

“Does Kindiki still fit the formula?” Naituli posed.

For now, the Deputy President remains in office, but the ground beneath him is shifting.

Notably, he has also dismissed calls to assume the role of Mt Kenya kingship, saying such an office doesn’t exist.

In earlier assertions on the subject, the DP said he was keen on his current assignment, which is to help Ruto deliver his promises to Kenyans.