Ruto’s tough balancing act as China, US scramble for Africa

President William Ruto is facing a tough balancing act between the East and West as the US and China scale up cutthroat competition for Africa.

Ruto on Thursday signed multibillion-shilling deals in Beijing as reports emerged that a top Trump diplomat had cancelled his trip to Kenya.

The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was to visit Nairobi and Addis Ababa next week but the trip was cancelled under unclear circumstances, according to a report in the Africa Intelligence.

Contacted for a comment about the trip, the US Embassy Nairobi asked the Star to contact their Washington DC office.

Ruto’s dalliance with the US appears to be faltering, especially after the election of Donald Trump.

Trump is pursuing America first policy, under which the US gives priority to its own domestic economic resurgence.  

President Ruto and other African leaders are pushing for infrastructural development to turn around their economies.

China, Africa’s leading trading partner for the last 15 years, has opened its national purse to bankroll the mega projects.

Speaking in China, Ruto appeared to throw jabs at America while insisting that Kenya will remain neutral in the global competition of super powers.

"I am always asked: Is Kenya facing East to China or facing West to the US? Let me say this: Kenya is neither facing East nor West, we are facing forward.

“We want to build mutually beneficial win-win relationships with as many friends as possible,” he said.

During a lecture at Peking University on Wednesday, Ruto argued for the urgent need to fashion a new world order, a stance widely associated with the East.

He also called for Kenya and China to continue championing the cause of the Global South in international fora.

In reference to the Bretton Woods institutions — IMF and the World Bank — as well the United Nations, Ruto called for reform for more representation and efficiency.

But as he departed for Beijing on Monday for a state visit, his Finance minister, John Mbadi, was in Washington holding meetings with top Bretton Woods executives to discuss Kenya’s economic status.

In the meeting with World Bank officials, Mbadi said discussions centered on Kenya’s economic trajectory and key areas of collaboration.

The balancing act comes as Kenya and China elevated their 62 years of diplomatic relations. China was the fourth country to recognise Kenya's independence.

"It speaks volumes of the strength and depth of the relationship between Kenya and China," Ruto said during meetings with Kenyans in China.

His visit was the first by an African leader after last year's Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (Focac).

He said the current visit is aimed at cementing the longstanding partnership while addressing trade imbalances.

Kenya's exports are worth Sh30 billion, which is 20 times less than what China brings into the country, about Sh600 billion. 

Projects like the 600km Standard Gauge Railway, Lamu port, and Nairobi Expressway underscore China's role in Kenya's infrastructure development.

"We have built the Thika Superhighway and extended it from Thika to Kenol," Ruto said, adding that discussions are ongoing for the Rironi-Mau Summit highway expansion, potentially beginning construction by June.

With global power competition intensifying, Kenya's ability to maintain productive relationships with both East and West while advancing its national interest remains a delicate but strategically necessary endeavour. 

Dr Cliff Mboya, a China-Africa analyst, said the disruptive US tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding Agoa dictate that Kenya seeks alternative markets.

“China has a very big market that Kenya can explore,” he said.

Dr Adhere Cavince, an expert on China-Africa relations, said it was for this reason that “commercial diplomacy is at the top of Ruto’s agenda in Beijing.”

Ruto attended the Third Belt and Road Forum in October 2023 and the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in September 2024.

In the two visits, Ruto held talks with Chinese leaders on, among other issues, infrastructure development.

The two countries have exchanged other high-level visits at Cabinet level as well as at the ruling political parties’ level.

Ruto’s state visit follows a similar one to the US in May 2024, which was equally billed as historic, being the first by an African leader since 2008.

It had undertones of America’s commitment to countering China's influence in Kenya and in Africa.

It was during the visit that Kenya was designated as a major non-NATO American ally, becoming the first sub-Saharan African country to receive the designation.

This came with a Sh900 million deal to help modernise the National Police Service, with a focus on staff and training development.

Kenya is a close ally of the US in the Multinational Security Support Mission in Haiti.

But the Kenya Kwanza administration is stuck with unmet poll pledges with less than three years to the 2027 elections.

President Ruto is running against time to deliver on the SGR extension to Malaba and the Mau Summit-Rironi Road, which the Chinese have accepted to undertake. 

"Many people are worried that we are only discussing loans and credit and things like that," Ruto acknowledged.

This includes pursuing public-private partnerships for projects like the Mau Summit highway expansion.

He said his team would explore new trade arrangements to rebalance lopsided trade with China. 

Shen Shiwei, a non-resident fellow of the Institute of African Studies at Zhejiang Normal University, said the close ties between Kenya and China can also be attributed to trade. 

“Kenya is among the first batch of African countries to benefit from the ‘Green Channel’ for good quality products entering the Chinese market.”

As a result, Kenyan flowers, avocados, and omenas are said to be increasingly available in the Chinese market.