The opposition’s push to settle on a single candidate is increasingly exposing a big unity headache, with competing ambitions threatening to complicate the pick for a flag bearer.
Even though opposition leaders are unanimous that there should be one candidate, the headache is however agreeing on who that candidate should be and persuading the losing camps to remain loyal.
Jubilee party leader and presidential aspirant Fred Matiang’i laid bare the difficulty of bringing the opposition parties together with just about 303 days to the polls.
Matiang'i described the process as tough, saying it involves "competing ambitions, personalities and egos".
“It’s not an easy thing to do. It is tough," Matiang'i confessed on Monday in Mombasa.
"Coalition building is one of the toughest experiences in political practice because you are bringing six parties together, six platforms, six presidential candidates, six sets of ambitions, six characters and six egos and all that, trying to bring them together in one room and build a relationship and end up with a team."
He said success would depend on respecting all players in the negotiations.
“Even a political party that has two members counts. Everyone counts,” Matiang’i said.
Already DCP Leader Rigathi Gachagua has predicted that there will be some sort of a fallout when the rubber meets the road.
Gachagua predicted one coalition principal will bolt out after failing to clinch the presidential ticket.
“I want to prophesy today, not because I am a prophet but based on experience, foresight and understanding Kenyan politics, history will repeat itself,” Gachagua told Kenyans in Dallas, United States on Sunday.
“Once presidential candidate will be announced; one person will go away. That one person will go away on his own.”
But the same opposition is also dealing with a separate headache of persuading Gachagua to join The Ukombozi Alliance (TUA), an outfit cobbled from the defunct Azimio La Umoja
Gachagua's allies had vowed that they would not join the team.
Should they refuse, the team would have to assemble a new machine and forced to market it to the public too close to the election.
"We as DCP cannot join the Ukombozi Alliance. They should join together as TUA, while we in the DCP will join Sifuna. Then we will negotiate together for one coalition," DCP deputy party leader Cleophas Malala said.Behind the unity rhetoric, powerful political networks are already lobbying for their preferred candidates and issuing ultimatums.
Behind each of the leading opposition hopefuls are influential allies who have shown little appetite for compromise, triggering fears the battle to secure the joint ticket could prove more difficult in the coming months.
Speaking to the Star, Funyula MP Oundo Midenyo warned that opposition’s push for single candidate risk being undermined if leaders with long political careers insist on retaining control of the presidential ticket.
“We have legacy politicians, politicians with some sense of entitlement who believe, probably it's them who should always be on the ballot paper as presidential candidate or any other senior positions,” Oundo told the Star.
The lawmaker, a key ally of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, urged Kenyans to deal with any opposition figure frustrating the push for a common flagbearer.
“I want to assure you Kenyans, you are a better judge. If any of these opposition figures refuse to align and sit down with the rest, so you Kenyans deal with that character in the best way you know,” the Funyula lawmaker said.
“We members of Linda Mwanainchi and all those who are opposed to Ruto's regime will have no choice but to sit down and agree how to proceed.”
The opposition presidential equation currently includes Gachagua, Kalonzo, Matiang’i, Martha Karua, Eugene Wamalwa, Justin Muturi and Sifuna, who has emerged as a key player after securing his own political vehicle.
Linda Mwananchi spokesperson and Suba South MP Caroli Omondi told the Star that while lobbying for a particular candidate is normal, the opposition must be tough on leaders making it hard for the team to agree on a candidate.
“It is normal for every politician to insist that their candidate is the best, it is called putting their best foot forward,” he told the Star on phone.
“What we won’t buy is the ultimatum. What people do not want is the situation of giving ultimatums that if it is not me then opposition will not unite.”
Already, there are disagreements over when the candidate should be unveiled.
Some leaders want the matter settled as early as November, while Gachagua has cautioned against rushing the process, arguing that an early announcement could give the government an opportunity to infiltrate and weaken the opposition.
Former President Uhuru Kenyatta is now being floated as a possible arbiter should the opposition principals fail to agree among themselves.
Gachagua has said opposition leaders could turn to Uhuru as an elder to help resolve disagreements if their negotiations over the joint presidential ticket hit a deadlock.
He said Uhuru’s role would not be to finance or lead the opposition, but to help the competing camps reach a compromise and prevent their ambitions from tearing the alliance apart.
“If we have any challenges when we are talking among ourselves, and we need an elder to guide us so that we don’t fight each other so much, we will invite him as our elder to be there for us,” Gachagua said.
The proposal however comes with own complications as the retired President is linked with nearly all the major players eyeing the opposition ticket.
He has previously backed Matiang’i, while maintaining close ties with Kalonzo.
He is also said to be the 'sponsor' behind Sifuna’s presidential bid.
The former President has also reconciled with Gachagua after their bitter fallout during the 2022 election.
This means any decision by Uhuru could easily be interpreted through the lens of his previous political alliances.
The former President has already thrown his weight behind calls for the opposition to settle on one candidate, warning that competing presidential ambitions could hand Ruto an advantage.
The Star established that Uhuru plans to chair the Ukombozi Alliance’s Council meeting, formerly Azimio la Umoja, where he is expected to handover the leadership of the alliance.
On Tuesday, all Azimio parties’ Secretary Generals met to deliberate on the future of the rebranded coalition.
