Opposition leaders Rigathi Gachagua, Justine Muturi, Fred Matiang’i, Kalonzo Musyoka and Eugene Wamalwa /HANDOUT
Efforts to unite the opposition behind one candidate to take on President William Ruto are faltering as hardliners dig in behind their preferred flagbearers.
Behind each of the leading opposition hopefuls are influential allies who have shown little appetite for compromise, triggering fears that the battle to secure the joint ticket could prove more difficult in the coming months.
The joint opposition ticket has attracted interest from Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Rigathi Gachagua (DCP), Fred Matiang’i (Jubilee), Martha Karua (LPP), Eugene Wamalwa (DAP-K) and Justin Muturi (DP).
The latest entrant into the opposition presidential equation is Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, whose Linda Mwananchi movement has endorsed him for the top seat.
A recent opinion poll shows Sifuna has opened a commanding lead among opposition presidential hopefuls.
The study by Politrack Africa Survey gives Sifuna 19.6 per cent, making him the strongest challenger to President Ruto, who polled 45.1 per cent support.
Kalonzo trails Sifuna at 10.3 per cent, Matiang’i stands at 7.2 per cent, Gachagua sits at six per cent, while Karua and former Chief Justice David Maraga are tied at 0.8 per cent support.
While the opposition leaders have continued to preach unity and the need to defeat Ruto through a single candidate, their allies have increasingly adopted uncompromising positions in defence of their respective principals.
In Sifuna’s camp, the hardliners are Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, MPs Babu Owino (Embakasi East) and Jack Wamboka (Bumula), Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale and Kabuchai lawmaker Majimbo Kalasinga, among others.
On Kalonzo’s side, there is Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua, Robert Mbui (Kathiani), Julius Mawathe (Embakasi South) and Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo.
For Gachagua, the main hardliners are MPs Edward Muriu (Gatanga), Nyandarua Senator John Methu, his Kiambu counterpart Karungo wa Thang’wa, Gitonga Mukunji (Manyatta), Wanjiku Muhia (Kipipiri) and Kirinyaga Woman MP Njeri Maina, among others.
Key allies of Kalonzo have insisted that he will be the flagbearer to face off with Ruto, citing, among other things, his past sacrifices for other opposition leaders.
“The delay is making Kenyans tired. Why is it so hard to make this all-important declaration?” he posed last month when he demanded that the opposition back Kalonzo for the top seat.
Maanzo told the Star that the Wiper leader is the most experienced in the opposition pool and must be the one to fly the ticket.
“For us, we have presented the most experienced and scandal-free leaders. We will insist that Kalonzo is given the ticket so that he can send Ruto home in the morning,” Maanzo told the Star.
Both Governor Natembeya, MPs Wamboka and Khalwale have maintained that the opposition must rally behind Sifuna, whom they argue is acceptable across the country.
“Where I stand at the moment, even though we have not agreed on who will carry our opposition flag, it would be wrong for us as leaders not to choose Sifuna and put someone else forward for different reasons,” Natembeya said during a recent interview.
Despite a number of Gusii elected leaders leaning towards Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi movement, they too have pitched for Matiang’i, citing his stellar performance during his stint in the Cabinet.
They are Clive Gisairo (Kitutu Masaba), Antony Kibagendi (Kitutu Chache South), Obadiah Barongo (Bomachoge Borabu) and Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka.
Senator Methu is on record saying that Gachagua must contest the presidency in the next 2027 General Election, citing the huge number of votes he will bring into the contest.
“A person who has five million votes cannot deputise someone with three million votes. If the engine that can drive the opposition is the same engine that will drive the government, then that person should be fronted and eventually become president,” Methu said.
The hardening positions have triggered concern within opposition circles that negotiations could collapse once the process moves from broad calls for unity to the more difficult question of who should step aside.
Political analysts say the real test will come when the opposition begins negotiating the details of the alliance, including the presidential ticket, running mate, parliamentary seats and the distribution of senior government positions.
The presidential ticket is expected to be the most contentious issue, with several camps reluctant to accept a subordinate role after investing heavily in building national networks.
“The presidential hopefuls must be careful with some of the lieutenants who are pushing them to the ballot, not just because they believe in their chances to be president but because they want to ride on their waves to secure their seats, be it parliamentary or governor post,” political commentator Samuel Owida told the Star.
He argued that the opposition will fail if they succumb to pressure from political brokers, MPs and regional leaders whose political survival is tied to particular candidates.
The opposition leaders have, however, continued to insist that unity remains possible, with talks expected to intensify as they seek to settle on a common strategy for the 2027 contest.
Suba South MP Caroli Omondi told the Star that while lobbying for a particular candidate is normal, the opposition must be tough on leaders making demands on their candidates.
“It is normal for every politician to insist that their candidate is the best. It is called putting their best foot forward,” he told the Star on phone.
“What we won’t buy is the ultimatum. What people do not want is the situation of giving ultimatums that if it is not me, then the opposition will not unite.”
Machakos Governor Francis Mwangangi said each opposition candidate ally should be free to lobby for support for their candidate in the best way they know how. However, in the end, the team will agree on one person to fly the flag.
“The agreement has been that each camp goes out there and markets themselves but ultimately the candidates will agree on who amongst them to face Ruto and I believe that person will be Kalonzo Musyoka,” Mwangangi told the Star.
INSTANT ANALYSIS
Without an agreed formula, each camp could accuse the others of attempting to manipulate the process, creating fresh divisions ahead of the election.
