Nairobi residents wading through water/FILESeveral parts of Kenya are expected to receive rainfall this week as the October-December short rains season gets underway, the Kenya Meteorological Department has said.
The department said light to moderate rainfall is expected in parts of 47 counties, including Nairobi, Mombasa, Kiambu, Nakuru, Kisumu, Kakamega, Machakos, Kajiado, Meru, Nyeri, Turkana, Garissa and Mandera.
Isolated storms are expected in parts of Mandera, Wajir and Marsabit counties, as well as Tana River and Kilifi.
The Met Department warned that the storms in these areas may lead to flash floods.
It also forecast strong southerly to southeasterly winds of above 25 knots, equivalent to 12.5 metres per second, over parts of Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit counties.
According to the department, October marks the onset of the October-November-December short rains season across much of Kenya.
The season begins as the Intertropical Convergence Zone migrates southwards across East Africa, bringing increased moisture and convection.
The department said the Indian Ocean Dipole, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and other intraseasonal weather systems influence the duration and intensity of rainfall during October.
These include the Madden-Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean and subtropical high-pressure systems.
The much-awaited El Niño rains are expected to commence as early as Thursday this week in several parts of Nyeri County.
Nyeri County Kenya Meteorological Services Authority (KMSA) Director Peter Wambugu told KNA there is a high likelihood of the county experiencing the first showers of the rains towards the end of this week before its intensity increases in the coming week.
Wambugu nevertheless clarified that much of the rain will start falling from the second and third weeks of October and will continue until January next year.
“We highly predict that Nyeri is among the counties that will start experiencing the first showers of the October-November–December rains towards the end of this week. We hope to share the weather outlook report for the week first before we can ascertain the overall distribution of the rains in the county," he said.
"In addition, the authority is not issuing any advisory to farmers on what type of crops to put in their lands during this season. This responsibility has been left to agricultural extension officers.”
The weatherman has already released the October-November-December weather outlook, in which it predicts that most parts of the country will experience above-average rains.
Only the county of Turkana and a few parts of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit are predicted to receive near-average rainfall during this season.
Mean temperatures are expected to be warmer than average throughout the country.
“October marks the onset of the October–November–December ‘Short Rains’ over much of Kenya. The month is particularly important to counties such as Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Murang’a, Embu and Busia where more than 200mm of rainfall is received,” read the weather outlook dated September 30.
The season results from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migrating southwards across East Africa, bringing with it increased moisture and convection.
Above-average rainfall is expected in Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Nairobi, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Isiolo, Nyandarua, Nyeri and parts of Taita Taveta, Laikipia, Tana River, Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit and Narok counties.
The report has also outlined potential impacts of the October rains on both man and environment.
