President William Ruto with Nyanza leaders during a tour of Migori on September 16, 2026.The new development is pitting leaders pushing a number of demands as preconditions against those arguing that ODM should reciprocate Ruto’s gestures without any conditions.
Those pushing for a conditional arrangement want a clear political bargain before committing the region to Ruto’s 2027 re-election campaign.
At the heart of their demands is a 50-50 sharing of government between the ruling UDA Party and ODM, should the current broad-based arrangement win the 2027 polls.
That camp also wants ODM to secure the Deputy President position, arguing that the region cannot simply deliver its votes while remaining on the margins of power.
ODM Deputy Party leader Simba Arati has been the voice of those putting conditions throughout Ruto's five-day tour of Nyanza region last week.
Speaking during various stopovers during Ruto’s visit to Kisumu, Siaya, Migori and Homa Bay counties, Arati demanded zoning of ODM’s traditional political bases, with UDA expected to limit its political activities in areas regarded as the party’s strongholds.
“Even the friendly fire burns. Here in Nyanza it is ODM; we don’t want mix-up. The only party is ODM,” Arati said.
The Kisii governor said Nyanza, Nairobi, Western and Coast regions, traditionally considered ODM strongholds, must be ring-fenced for the party.
“UDA has an advantage because you are the President; we are asking that you leave these grassroots to us so that we organise ourselves as ODM,” Arati said.
The Orange party has severally laid claim to Ruto’s 2027 deputy and even suggested names for Ruto's possible running mate in 2027.
National Assembly Minority leader Junet Mohamed last month said the running mate slot was now the party's condition for staying in the broad-based arrangement.
"For us to work together, ODM and UDA, it is now official that we must be given the running mate slot for us to move forward together," Junet said.
ODM has floated several names for the slot, including Co-operatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya, Mining Cabinet Secretary Ali Hassan Joho and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga.
In an interview with the Star, Senate Deputy Minority Whip and Migori Senator Eddy Oketch said ODM will negotiate on conditions which must be met by their broad-based partner.
“We must negotiate on conditions of an equal 50 -50 share; Deputy President position and respect to ODM zones. Those are the bare minimum,” Oketch told the Star.
That view was echoed by Awendo MP Walter Owino, who termed the ultimatums necessary to convince supporters who will demand to know how they benefit in the arrangement.
“As ODM we must be clear on what we want because how then do we convince our supporters not to support other formations and only stick to the broad-based arrangement?” Owino posed.
“They (supporters) will start asking us what's in it for us, saying unconditional support means that we will take anything given. Conditions must be there; we need something to tell our people as a direct benefit from the arrangement.”
Leaders advancing this position are wary of a repeat of previous political arrangements in which Nyanza has been mobilised to deliver votes only for the region to complain later that it received little in return.
They want any 2027 partnership to be negotiated early, with the terms made clear before the campaign gathers momentum.
But an increasingly vocal group is rejecting the idea of placing conditions on Ruto’s support.
The camp for unconditional support says the President has already demonstrated goodwill towards Nyanza through development projects and his decision to accommodate leaders from the region in government.
Alego Usonga MP Sam Atandi told the Star that the inclusion of ODM members in the Executive came without conditions and 2027 should not be pegged on any demand.
“At formation of broad-based government, there were no conditions and we still ended up with powerful positions. We are a family that should just sit and share power,” Atandi told the Star.
Nyando MP Jared Okelo, backing the unconditional support, said the transformation of the region is enough reason to re-elect the President.
“Mr President, we as a community are now certified orphans. I have never seen any orphan giving conditions. Therefore, our quest to work with you and lend you our support is both unequivocal and unconditional,” Okelo said.
“We will stand with you because of what you have done.”
Gem MP Elisha Odhiambo agrees with his colleagues saying Ruto has proved to be part of the ODM family and should be supported unconditionally.
“We will support Ruto unconditionally because he was a former pillar and champion of the party, we are reelecting one of our own,” Odhoambo told the Star.
Rongo MP Paul Abuor cautioned against pushing for rigid conditions that could create unnecessary mistrust and disrupt the ongoing development projects.
“The broad-based government has already delivered immense development and key leadership roles to our people. To secure these massive gains and maintain national stability, ODM must offer unconditional support to President William Ruto,” Abuor told the Star.
“True power is not won through hostile ultimatums, but through a unified partnership that guarantees long-term development for our people."
Cabinet secretaries John Mbadi (Treasury) and Opiyo Wandayi (Energy) have also pushed for the unconditional support saying Ruto is the only President who has recognised the Luo community and transformed the region.
“We have tried friendship with other people since independence but it has never worked for us, that is why we are going to give our unequivocal support to Ruto in 2027,” Mbadi said.
“Only Ruto has recognised this community and we shall support your re-election come 2027,” Wandayi added.
INSTANT ANALYSIS
An unconditional endorsement from sections of Raila’s backyard would strengthen his efforts to build a wider political coalition beyond his traditional support base. But demands for a formal power-sharing arrangement could force his camp to negotiate over positions and political territory before the 2027 contest.
