President William Ruto’s tour of Nyanza has been fairly extensive and with a lot of goodies on it.
He has been fairly well received in most of the places, if not all, that he visited. That can show he probably sits well with the electorate.
The question of whether he will get, say, 80 per cent of the vote will depend on whether the opposition will organise itself properly. The opposition at the moment is in disarray, and their organisation, or lack of it, will determine the level of votes that Ruto will bag.
The greatest opponent of Ruto in Nyanza is Linda Mwananchi. They have a chunk of the vote, but if Linda Mwananchi is not united and hitting the road properly, then Ruto will have no problem.
Two, if the opposition is going to name a different presidential candidate, like, say, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who is a big scarecrow in Nyanza, then Ruto may have a headway.
Kalonzo Musyoka doesn’t seem to have hit the campaign mode. He hasn’t hit the road, so he is not seen as a big threat. He doesn’t have much support in Nyanza.
It has been argued that competing interests could work against the coalition, and have a negative effect, but it is worth noting it can have an advantage, in that it will help mobilise numbers for Ruto’s upward mobility. If the competing interests are not there, it will be a lull situation, similar to what happened to Raila Odinga in 2022.
The key issue, therefore, is not simply the reception Ruto has received during the tour, but how the political forces on the ground organise themselves in the months ahead.
Nyanza remains a critical battleground, and the strength, unity and visibility of the competing political formations could shape the final vote.
Ruto’s current reception provides one indication, but the opposition’s organisation will be equally important in determining how much of the vote he can secure. Much will depend on whether the opposition can convert its numbers into an effective campaign.
Maseno University communications don spoke to The Star
