Government spokesperson Charles Owino during a past event/FILEThe government has warned Kenyans to prepare for above-average rainfall expected between October and December, with the country facing a 90 per cent chance of experiencing very heavy rains.
Government spokesperson Charles Owino said Thursday, September 10, the Kenya Meteorological Services Authority was monitoring weather patterns indicating the possible development of an El Niño event, which could result in increased rainfall across the country.
Owino said the forecast was based on rising sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, with current anomalies standing at a positive 2.7 and expected to rise further.
“This is expected to result in very warm ocean temperatures and consequently high rainfall across the country,” Owino said.
However, he said the intensity and destructive potential of the rains would depend partly on conditions in the Indian Ocean.
“For this rainfall to possess high intensity and greater destructive capacity, the El Niño conditions would typically need to be supported by Indian Ocean Dipole values above positive 0.4,” he said.
Owino said the Indian Ocean Dipole was currently at a neutral positive 0.25, below the threshold associated with more severe rainfall conditions.
“Fortunately, the current Indian Ocean Dipole is at a neutral value of positive 0.25,” he said.
The meteorological department will continue monitoring the indicator, with Owino saying authorities hoped it would remain below positive 0.4.
“Regardless, the country has a 90 per cent chance of experiencing above-average or very high rainfall due to El Niño,” he said.
The government has consequently adopted a multi-agency preparedness plan for the anticipated rains, expected from October 2026 into early 2027.
Owino said all State departments were expected to establish national standing committees to coordinate preparedness and response to possible El Niño-related incidents.
County governments, supported by national government administration officers, have also been directed to put measures in place to protect lives and livelihoods, safeguard critical infrastructure and ensure emergency response mechanisms can be activated quickly.
Authorities have further been asked to map areas likely to be affected and begin preparations for the safe evacuation of families living in high-risk locations.
“Those settled on the riparian areas are expected to vacate and get to safer grounds ahead of the rains,” Owino said.
The warning comes after the western region, considered an important food-producing area, experienced depressed rainfall and intense heat waves, resulting in crop failures.
Owino said the government was taking the changing conditions into account as it prepares for the possibility of heavy rains following the dry spell experienced in some parts of the country.
He urged Kenyans to remain alert but said there was no need for panic.
“There is no cause for panic. However, there is every reason for government institutions, communities and individual citizens to remain alert and take appropriate precautionary measures,” he said.
The Kenya Meteorological Services Authority will continue issuing updates on El Niño, the Indian Ocean Dipole and the October-December rainfall patterns as forecasts are refined.
The government will also work with development and humanitarian partners to strengthen national preparedness.
“Our objective is to ensure that the country prepares early and that communities have the information they need to protect themselves, their families and their livelihoods,” Owino said.
He urged Kenyans to stay informed, follow official weather advisories and act promptly whenever authorities issue evacuation or other safety instructions
