A silent battle for control of Nairobi is taking shape, with rival opposition forces stepping up efforts to demonstrate their campaign machinery.
The latest show of strength is expected on Sunday, when the Linda Mwananchi movement stages a major rally in Nairobi.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and his allies are seeking to reinforce their claim the city is the natural base of the emerging political outfit.
Their rally came just days after the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) brigade descended on Nairobi with a series of political rallies, signalling former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua's resolve to control Nairobi’s three million voters.
Leading the charge during Wednesday’s Nairobi offensive was Nyandarua Senator John Methu, who is also earmarked for the DCP secretary general’s position.
The growing contest, however, is not limited to the two opposition formations.
The ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and its Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) partners are also quietly laying strategies aimed at retaining their influence in Nairobi, setting the stage for a potentially bruising four-way contest for political dominance.
In the last elections, despite losing the governor seat through the Jubilee candidate, ODM emerged as the majority party in the county assembly. The Orange party also bagged the Senate and Woman Representative seats.
However, according to University don Prof Gitile Naituli, it will be a tall order for ODM to retain even the seats it currently holds.
“Once Luhyas and Kambas leave you, you cannot get a seat in Nairobi. They [the two communities] are the ones who gave ODM muscles in Nairobi politics, and now they are gone,” Prof Naituli argued.
“Ruto’s UDA will not get any vote in Nairobi.”
He gave the city to both DCP and Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi, adding that Gachagua’s party will bag at least 10 of the 17 parliamentary seats.
“Nairobi will go to DCP. A combination of DCP and Linda Mwananchi will see DCP retaining all the 10 seats held by the Kikuyu community, while Sifuna takes the remaining seven currently held by Luos and Kambas,” he said.
Already, DCP leader Gachagua has declared a political takeover of Nairobi, projecting the party as a major force in the capital after a spate of defections that has seen it raid UDA and Jubilee.
Kamukunji MP Yusuf Hassan (Jubilee), Starehe MP Amos Mwago (Jubilee), Embakasi West MP Mark Mwenje (Jubilee), Embakasi North MP James Gakuya (UDA), and Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Mejjadonk (UDA) have all shifted to DCP.
“I want to announce today the DCP takeover of Nairobi. I also want to say that the competition in Nairobi is among DCP, Wiper and Linda Mwananchi. Luckily, we are on the same side. Anything to do with Ruto and Oburu's [Oginga] ODM in Nairobi is finished,” Gachagua said last week.
He said DCP would field candidates in all 17 constituencies, noting he is confident of winning at least 12 parliamentary seats while mounting a strong challenge for the remaining five.
“We will also have candidates for governor, senator and woman representative,” he said, while leaving the door open for negotiations with like-minded parties.
Of Nairobi's 85 wards, Gachagua said DCP is targeting victory in 62 and would fight for the remaining seats.
DCP leaders have been plotting an aggressive Nairobi takeover strategy, with Gachagua reportedly urging some of the party's gubernatorial hopefuls to consider shelving their ambitions in favour of a united candidate capable of boosting the party's chances of clinching the county's top seat.
Former PS Irungu Nyakera last month announced he will vie for the Makadara parliamentary seat on the DCP ticket. He was initially eyeing the governor seat, which has also attracted Embakasi North MP James Gakuya.
The move underlines the high stakes surrounding Nairobi, whose vast and cosmopolitan electorate makes it one of the most coveted political prizes in the country.
On the other side, Linda Mwananchi is equally determined to plant its flag firmly in the capital. Sifuna, the movement's leader, shared the announcement on his X account, accompanying it with the brief message: “Back to base.”
The Sifuna-led movement has consistently portrayed Nairobi as one of its strongest political bases, banking on the senator's popularity and an expanding grassroots network to mount a serious challenge in the next elections.
Sunday’s rally at Jacaranda grounds is expected to offer Sifuna's team an opportunity to send a message to rivals that it intends to be a major player in the battle for the capital.
ODM is also not letting go of its traditional base. Through county chairman and Makadara MP George Aladwa, the outfit has planned an aggressive campaign to maintain its seats, expand its influence, and retain its dominance in Nairobi.
“As ODM Nairobi county, our immediate task is to build a stronger party ahead of 2027. We are determined to win as many elective seats as possible in Nairobi,” Aladwa said.
“We will strengthen our branches, activate ward structures, and mobilise our supporters across the city. Our branch chairmen and grassroots officials must begin this work immediately.”
