The opposition’s strategy to mobilise separately across the country may look, on the surface, like a recipe for division, but it could prove lethal for President William Ruto’s re-election bid.
It could become one of the most effective ways of weakening Ruto’s re-election bid, provided the competing camps eventually unite before the election.
Different opposition leaders are building their own political bases, taking separate routes into regions and constituencies, testing their popularity and later agreeing on a single presidential ticket.
Linda Mwananchi, under Edwin Sifuna, is expanding its national footprint, while Rigathi Gachagua is consolidating his Mt Kenya support, Kalonzo Musyoka remains influential in Ukambani, and Fred Matiang’i too in Nyanza..
The opposition has also acknowledged that a single candidate will ultimately be necessary to maximise its chances against Ruto.
This strategy has a major advantage: it allows the opposition to attack the government from different electoral theatres simultaneously.
Instead of one leader carrying the burden of challenging Ruto everywhere, each political formation can concentrate on areas where it has the greatest influence.
Gachagua can focus on Mt Kenya, Kalonzo on Ukambani, Sifuna on urban and Western constituencies, while Matiang’i can strengthen the opposition presence in Gusii and other parts of Nyanza.
This creates a serious strategic headache for State House.
More importantly, separate mobilisation gives the opposition an opportunity to measure its real electoral strength before negotiating a final coalition.
Leaders can identify which regions they can genuinely deliver, which constituencies remain competitive and which candidate has the broadest national appeal.
Recent polling illustrates why this could matter.
Ruto has continued to lead individual candidate rankings, but opposition support remains fragmented among several figures.
The danger for the President is that these votes could become complementary rather than competitive if the opposition eventually agrees on a single ticket.
That is where separate mobilisation becomes lethal.
The opposition does not necessarily need every leader to abandon his ambitions now.
In fact, premature unity could suppress grassroots enthusiasm and trigger early fights over the presidential ticket.
It may be wiser for each leader to build strength independently, negotiate from a position of strength and then consolidate.
The opposition’s greatest weapon, may be separate mobilisation now, followed by unity at the decisive moment.
The Machakos aspiring senator spoke to the Star
