The Nairobi-based political risk analyst Dismus Mokua spoke to the Star/ HANDOUT
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The removal of Edwin Sifuna is a double-edged sword, both for
Sifuna and the Broad-Based administration.
Let's start with Sifuna. He can use his exit from both the ODM secretary general position and senate leadership to build and grow political capital that he can convert into votes.
However, that means that he needs to come up with a good political strategy that can harness the national visibility and the national conversations around him.
That way, he can turn ouster into votes in the 2027 general elections.
However, on the flip side. He may miss the privileges and benefits associated with those two positions, which have given him financial and political muscles to move around the nation.
It's important to note that what has given him national visibility and national conversations is his high-profile role as the ODM secretary general and his leadership role at the Senate.
So, what he can easily do is to read from the same book as Raila Odinga.
He would have resigned as ODM member and then run for his seat using a special purpose vehicle created by Linda Mwanainchi.
That way, he will be able to demonstrate his political dignity. And just like Raila before him, he will make his party the party of choice for 2027 General Election.
Failure to do that, he may fall into the matrix of ambitious politicians who have no capacity nor competence to take knife-edge decisions.
What gave Raila political capital is his capacity and competence to take knife-edge decisions.
Raila was uncomfortable with, or rather, had very poor appetite for the political comfort zone.
So, he was always rocking the boat, and that is what gave him political capital. So, for Sifuna to be a big player in the 2027 general elections, he must rock the boat immediately by resigning as a member of ODM today, and causing a by-election and running on a party created or fronted by Linda Mwananchi.
That way, he will announce his arrival in town.
Sifuna's exit from the two roles is unlikely to cause a mass exodus. The only time President Ruto, who is the de facto leader of ODM, would be worried is if Sifuna's exit would cause a mass exodus from ODM.
The Nairobi-based political risk analyst spoke to the Star
