IGAD calls for overhaul of mediation strategies amid rising conflict complexity in Horn of Africa

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has called for a fundamental rethinking of mediation approaches in the Horn of Africa, warning that traditional frameworks are increasingly ineffective in the face of fragmented conflicts, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and weakening multilateral systems.

Speaking during the opening of the IGAD Mediation Reflection Conference in Nairobi, IGAD Executive Secretary Workneh Gebeyehu reiterated the urgency of adapting mediation to a rapidly evolving global and regional landscape.

The two-day conference has brought together regional leaders, diplomats and international partners to assess the future of conflict resolution in the region, with particular focus on Sudan.

“We meet at a time when the foundations that once sustained mediation are under visible—and growing—strain,” said Workneh.

“We are not simply living through a period of crisis; we are living through a transformation.”

He noted that mediation today is no longer insulated from geopolitics, but is instead shaped by competing international interests, fragmented authority, and diminishing coherence.

According to IGAD, the erosion of trust among states and the rise of transactional diplomacy are further complicating peace processes.

“For IGAD, mediation is not optional. It is our most visible political responsibility,” he said, adding that the credibility of regional multilateralism is increasingly judged by its ability to prevent and resolve conflicts.

Kenya’s Prime Cabinet Secretary and Cabinet Secretary for Foreign and Diaspora Affairs, Musalia Mudavadi, reaffirmed the central role of IGAD in regional peace efforts, emphasising the need to strengthen the bloc as the primary mechanism for mediation in the Horn of Africa.

“A more harmonized approach, anchored on IGAD’s leadership, will strengthen coherence and effectiveness in the region,” Mudavadi said.

He highlighted the dual challenge facing mediation efforts: protracted, evolving conflicts and external pressures on multilateral systems.

Mudavadi called for increased financial commitment from member states to support IGAD’s mandate, stressing that reliance on external partners should remain supplementary.

“Ownership of IGAD programmes, including mediation, must be reflected in resource commitment by members,” he said.

The conference also examined the ongoing crisis in Sudan, now entering its third year of conflict.

IGAD acknowledged that despite sustained mediation efforts, including international initiatives such as the Berlin Conference, progress has been limited.

“Despite sustained efforts, we have neither halted the fighting nor secured a credible political process. This is failure—and it must be acknowledged,” Workneh stated.

He warned that Sudan risks becoming a symbol of the broader breakdown in mediation effectiveness.

“If mediation cannot make a difference in Sudan, its credibility everywhere is at risk,” he said, calling for unified, politically anchored and strategically coherent approaches.

Echoing these concerns, African Union Special Representative for Sudan, Ambassador Mohamed Belaiche, emphasised the need for coordination among regional and international actors to avoid fragmented initiatives.

“The real challenge facing everyone today is how to bridge disparate efforts and connect paths that sometimes seem to run parallel and never intersect,” Belaiche said.

He stressed that African-led solutions remain essential, noting that the gathering itself demonstrated that “the African voice remains present and capable of finding solutions to African problems.”

Belaiche outlined key principles guiding African Union engagement, including Sudanese ownership of the peace process, inclusiveness of women and youth, coordination with IGAD, and accountability for war crimes.

He warned that any political process must respect Sudan’s unity and territorial integrity.

The conference highlighted the increasing complexity of modern conflicts in the Horn of Africa, characterised by multiple actors, blurred internal and external dynamics and entrenched war economies.

These factors, participants noted, require more flexible, inclusive, and adaptive mediation frameworks.

Mudavadi emphasized that sustainable peace cannot be achieved without broad participation. “Mediation processes must be inclusive. Women, youth, and local communities must be part of the solution,” he said.

Participants also raised concerns over the persistent gap between peace agreements and their implementation.

Weak institutional support and lack of follow-through have often led to the resurgence of conflict, undermining earlier gains.

“We must prioritize implementation by strengthening institutional support mechanisms,” Mudavadi said, adding that agreements alone are insufficient without sustained commitment.

As the conference continues, IGAD is expected to consolidate insights into a strategic roadmap aimed at restoring the effectiveness of mediation in the region.

The outcome is anticipated to reinforce IGAD’s leadership role while promoting greater coordination among African and international stakeholders.

Workneh concluded with a call to action: “We cannot normalize permanent war. What the Horn of Africa requires is not management, but resolution. This must be a moment of decision—a decision to restore mediation and act with urgency and purpose.”