How Uhuru–Gachagua rivalry could hand Ruto victory in Ol Kalou poll

A looming political contest in Ol Kalou is shaping into more than a routine by-election.

Instead, it is exposing a deeper struggle for control of the Mt Kenya region that could ultimately favour President William Ruto.

The vacancy, occasioned by the death of area MP David Kiaraho, has drawn immediate interest from rival political camps, with Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party and Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) both signalling intentions to field candidates.

While Jubilee is keen to retain the seat it won in the last election, Gachagua’s entry into the race points to an emerging contest for supremacy in the vote-rich region ahead of the 2027 General Election.

The result is a potential fragmentation of the opposition vote, a scenario that could give an advantage to the ruling UDA.

Early signals from within the DCP suggest strong interest in the seat, with Nyandarua Senator John Methu revealing that at least seven aspirants are already seeking the party’s ticket.

His claims that some of these aspirants are being lured by rival parties point to the high stakes surrounding the by-election and intense behind-the-scenes manoeuvring.

Gachagua has used recent public appearances to reinforce his political relevance in the region.

Speaking during Kiaraho’s funeral service, he framed his removal from office as a political setback rather than a loss of grassroots support, insisting he remains firmly anchored in Mt Kenya’s political landscape.

“The people of Mt Kenya still love me. I am still in people’s hearts,” he said.

On the other hand, Jubilee has moved quickly to assert its claim to the seat.

Deputy party leader Jeremiah Kioni has urged allied opposition parties to cede ground, arguing that the constituency rightfully belongs to Jubilee.

The party is positioning itself as the natural political home for Kiaraho’s legacy while seeking to maintain its foothold in a region where its influence has steadily been challenged.

The competing claims highlight a broader dilemma within the opposition: whether to prioritise unity or individual party strength.

In the absence of a coordinated strategy, multiple candidates from opposition-leaning parties could split the vote, replicating the dynamics seen in the Mbeere North by-election, where UDA clinched victory with a narrow margin amid a divided opposition.

Although UDA’s secretary general Hassan Omar has not publicly outlined the ruling party’s strategy, indications that UDA is scouting for a strong candidate suggest it is preparing to capitalise on any divisions.

With the by-election yet to be formally declared by National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, political camps still have time to recalibrate, but early signs point to a fragmented contest.

Beyond the immediate race, the Ol Kalou by-election is fast becoming a proxy battle between Uhuru and Gachagua, whose allies have increasingly clashed over the political direction of Mt Kenya.

The rivalry reflects competing visions: Jubilee’s attempt to retain relevance as an established party versus Gachagua’s push to consolidate influence under a new political vehicle.

Critics of Gachagua, including former Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu, have warned against efforts to steer the region towards single-party dominance, arguing that political diversity remains essential.

Yet Gachagua has continued to court former Jubilee figures and expand his base through grassroots engagements such as the Wamunyoro meetings, signalling a deliberate attempt to redraw the region’s political map.

For President Ruto, the unfolding contest presents a strategic opening.

A divided opposition in a key political stronghold could ease UDA’s path to victory, reinforcing the party’s grip on the region while weakening potential challengers ahead of 2027.

Ultimately, the Ol Kalou by-election may serve as an early test of whether the opposition can overcome internal rivalries to present a united front, or whether those divisions will once again shape electoral outcomes in favour of the ruling party.