A new report by the United Nations has raised quiet but significant concern over Kenya’s political trajectory.
It warns of growing risks of polarisation as the country edges closer to the 2027 General Election.
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In its latest Kenya Annual Results Report 2025, the UN says that while the country remains largely stable, underlying political tensions and institutional pressures are beginning to build.
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It is against these concerns that the UN says its focus will shift towards peacebuilding, conflict prevention and electoral preparedness.
“UN Kenya will work collectively to support inclusive peace-building, conflict prevention, social cohesion and civic participation, recognising the growing pressures on institutions and heightened risk of political polarisation,” the report says.
The report adds that as Kenya enters its pre-election period, peace, prevention and electoral preparedness will take increased prominence.
The UN will intensify efforts to support inclusive dialogue, social cohesion and civic participation.
This comes at a time when political realignments have intensified, amid heightened rhetoric and competition for influence among regional blocs.
The UN warns that these dynamics are unfolding against a backdrop of “growing pressures on institutions and heightened risk of political polarisation”, underscoring concerns that political, ethnic and economic divisions could deepen in the run-up to the polls.
The country has witnessed a rise in political violence.
Opposition teams have particularly borne the brunt of the violence, with cases of disruption of meetings and attacks on churches,
United Opposition and Linda Mwananchi leaders have been vocal in condemning the incidents.
Violent incidents have been reported in Kisii, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Kirinyaga and Nairobi counties, targeting public meetings or church events hosted or attended by the united opposition.
The Linda Mwananchi team has also been targeted in Kajiado and Busia counties.
The church has already raised alarm over the trend, warning that Kenya risks sliding into a Haiti-style gangland situation.
ACK head Jackson Sapit has warned that escalating political tensions and the emergence of organised gangs at public gatherings pose a serious threat to national stability.
The clergyman cautioned that if left unchecked, the phenomenon could spiral into long-term insecurity, warning of a descent into lawlessness.
“Now we have entered a culture we haven’t seen before of people called goons who are hired by politicians from various sides and every side has its own ‘goons’,” Sapit said.
“I want to warn Kenyans that what is happening in Haiti started just like this. Those who were trained by political factions eventually became a problem and a threat to the country.”
Violence was also witnessed during the high-stakes by-elections in Malava, Mbeere North and Kasipul constituencies.
The opposition claimed violence and intimidation were used.
Civil society groups echoed the claims, saying the by-elections became a “display of manipulation, opposition complicity and calculated violence”.
“These violations formed part of a deliberate architecture built on intimidation, misinformation, violence and abuse of public resources to distort the electoral process and predetermine outcomes,” lobby groups said in a joint statement.
They recommended mapping out potential hotspots of electoral violence and voter manipulation ahead of the 2027 polls to enable prevention and protection measures.
With a history of election-related tensions, such early caution from the UN, coupled with warnings from civil society, risks heightening fears of possible escalation of tensions in what is expected to be a highly competitive presidential election.
The report notes that UN agencies will adopt a coordinated approach to support Kenya’s electoral ecosystem.
This will include strengthening institutions, promoting civic engagement and facilitating conflict prevention mechanisms at both national and community levels.
“Early joint UN engagement on electoral support will be essential … to ensure readiness well ahead of the 2027 electoral cycle,” the report adds.
The UN report also links governance challenges to broader socio-economic realities, including youth unemployment, cost-of-living pressures and limited economic opportunities.
The intersection between economic stress and political competition is identified as a potential risk factor for polarisation.
The report also highlights the need for stronger civic participation and greater public trust in institutions.
It notes ongoing efforts to engage young people and communities in governance processes.
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