Early onset of long rains reported in several regions

The long rain season has commenced earlier than usual in several parts of the country, with farmers advised to begin planting activities to take advantage of the favourable conditions.

According to the Kenya Meteorological Department, the onset criteria have already been met since mid-February over western, central and highland regions, including Nairobi and counties within the Lake Victoria Basin and the highlands west of the Rift Valley.

The department explained that the onset criteria are defined as the receipt of at least 20 millimetres of rainfall within three consecutive days, with no dry spell exceeding seven days thereafter.

The early rains have been associated with favourable atmospheric conditions, including enhanced convective activity linked to the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has temporarily increased moisture convergence and rainfall over several parts of the country.

However, the department warned that the MJO is likely to transition to less favourable phases from mid-March, which may lead to reduced rainfall amounts and an increased likelihood of dry spells in some regions.

The south-eastern lowlands and south Coast experienced rainfall onset in the fourth week of February, while north-western and north-eastern regions are expected to receive the onset between late March and early April. The north Coast is likely to experience a delayed onset in mid-April despite intermittent early-season rainfall.

Farmers have been advised to consult agricultural extension officers for guidance and continue monitoring the 24-hour, five-day, seven-day and monthly forecasts issued by the department and county meteorological offices.

The long rain season is the major rainfall period over most parts of Kenya and plays a critical role in agriculture, water resources and economic activities.