Ruto everywhere, opposition missing in 28 counties

While opposition leaders have mounted joint rallies and political meetings since the year started, these engagements have largely been concentrated in their backyards.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who has undertaken the most engagements among the opposition principals, has held at least 15 but only covering seven counties.

These are Nairobi, Kiambu, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Machakos and Mombasa. This weekend, he will be back in Othaya, Nyeri county, and Kigumo, Murang’a county, accompanied by opposition bigwigs.

Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka has covered only four counties this year. These are Nyandarua, Machakos, Nairobi and Kitui, with at least three engagements in Machakos county.

Matiang’i has been to seven counties, among them Nyamira, Nairobi, Mombasa, Kwale, Kiambu and Kajiado.

Eugene Wamalwa and Martha Karua have undertaken the least engagements. Wamalwa has been to at least five counties, while Karua has remained in Nairobi with one grassroots meeting with PLP coordinators and the United Opposition meetings in Nairobi on Wednesday.

On the other hand, Ruto has held at least 20 meetings across 11 counties. These are Nyeri (returning twice), Nairobi, Meru, Kisii, Machakos, Samburu, Laikipia, Uasin Gishu, Nakuru West Pokot and Kakamega.

However, many of these meetings are under the Nyota programme, an engagement political observers link to the 2027 battle for the youth vote.

Similarly, the United Opposition’s ground coverage last year was largely poor, with a review of publicly reported engagements showing the alliance has yet to hold political meetings in at least 28 of the 47 counties.

On the other hand, Ruto and his allies crisscrossed the country almost weekly, commissioning projects, launching development initiatives and holding political engagements labelled empowerment programmes.

While the government’s tours have a national outlook, the United Opposition’s activities have been concentrated in selected counties in Eastern, Mt Kenya, Western, Kisii and a few in the Coast region.

They are yet to visit Northeastern, raising questions about the opposition’s ability to match Ruto’s expansive ground coverage with the advantage of state machinery.

Counties that have not recorded publicly reported United Opposition rallies or joint political forums include most of the Coast region (Mombasa, Kwale, Tana River, Lamu and Taita Taveta), Northeastern counties of Garissa, Wajir and Mandera, as well as frontier counties, such as Marsabit and Isiolo.

Gachagua, however, had a DCP party retreat in Mombasa, while Matiang’i had some individual meetings in Kwale and Mombasa.

In Central Kenya, despite sustained messaging about reclaiming the Mt Kenya vote, the coalition has yet to hold joint political meetings in Kirinyaga, Murang’a and Kiambu counties, with Gachagua being the principal who has camped in the region.

These gaps persist even as Ruto has maintained a steady presence in the region through development tours and political engagements.

The Rift Valley presents the most significant challenge. The opposition has not held meetings in core UDA strongholds, such as Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Kericho, Bomet, Nakuru, Baringo, Trans Nzoia, Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu, which are Ruto’s backyards.

Analysts say the absence reflects the difficulty of penetrating Ruto’s backyard.

The Nyanza counties of Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori have also not hosted United Opposition rallies, with the only recent engagements being visits to Bondo to pay last respects to Raila Odinga. This is despite Kalonzo and Karua drawing some level of political goodwill from the region given their history with Raila.

Opposition leaders have defended their approach, arguing that their strategy prioritises consolidation, coalition-building and voter registration in targeted regions before expanding nationwide.

However, critics argue that time is not on the opposition’s side, noting that by this time in the last electoral cycle, Ruto — then as DP — had covered much of the country.