Voices of hope: What Kenyans wish for 2026

Kenyans attending Churchill Crossover show at KICC usher in 2025 at the stroke of midnight. /FILE

As 2025 closes, Kenyans are stepping into the new year with a mixture of hope, apprehension and weary resilience.

Conversations across markets, matatus, offices and online platforms reveal a country grappling with economic strain, yet still holding tightly to the belief that better days remain possible.

From the impact of new taxes to the pressure on small businesses, from shifting household priorities to emerging signs of stability in national economic indicators, the nation’s expectations for 2026 are as varied as they are emotionally charged.

The past year has not been gentle. Many Kenyans say their incomes have shrunk as new policy measures — including the Finance Bill 2025 adjustments, the mandatory housing levy and the roll-out of the Social Health Insurance Fund (SHIF) — have reduced take-home pay.

Some companies implemented austerity measures and slashed budgets for expenditures deemed to be luxuries like tea and snacks, and for some, staff were asked to choose between losing their jobs or taking pay cuts.

Families that once managed modest comfort now find themselves cutting luxuries and, in some cases, essentials.

Business owners count losses where profits once stood. Yet amid the consternation, the government insists that the pain is transitional, and that Kenya is already stepping onto firmer economic ground.

In his State of the Nation Address on November 20, President William Ruto urged Kenyans to look at what he termed the “deliberate choices, disciplined execution and strategic reforms” that he said had strengthened the economy and “unlocked its potential”.

He highlighted a surge in foreign reserves, which he said had reached $12 billion — the highest level since independence — crediting this with shielding the shilling against external shocks and helping restore investor confidence.

He painted a picture of optimism. “International markets have taken note. Just this week, 14 of the world’s leading financial institutions, including City Group, JP Morgan, Standard Chartered and Goldman Sachs, projected that Kenya’s economy will expand by between 5 and 5.8 per cent in 2026.”

This positive outlook, the President said, reflected improved fundamentals such as lower credit costs, rising exports, stronger household spending driven by low inflation and a generally stable macro-economic environment.

He also pointed to improved international credit sentiment, noting that global agency Standard and Poor’s had upgraded Kenya’s sovereign credit rating from B- to B — the first upward revision in years.

According to him, this signalled renewed foreign investor confidence, which in turn could reduce the cost of credit for both government and private sector borrowers.

The shilling, which has traded around 129 to the dollar for more than 15 months, has been held up as evidence of currency stability.

Yet public debt remains a point of anxiety for many Kenyans, currently standing at about Sh12 trillion — a figure that critics believe understates the real situation.

As Kenyans debate the state of the economy, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) presented a cautiously hopeful outlook for 2026.

In its July 7 meeting, the MPC noted that inflation stood at 4.6 per cent in September, up slightly from 4.5 per cent the previous month.

It said the rise mirrored trends in other major economies, driven mainly by higher food prices and increased tariffs.

Looking ahead, however, the committee projected that inflation would gradually decline.

“Overall inflation is expected to remain below the mid-point of the target range in the near term, supported by stable energy prices and continued exchange rate stability,” it said.

For growth, the MPC forecast a stronger 2026. “The growth of the economy is expected to pick at 5.5 per cent in 2026 supported by continued resilience of key service sectors and agriculture and continued recovery of the industry sector.”

Still, it issued a warning familiar to many Kenyans: this outlook remains subject to risks, including elevated trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions.

Across the country, Kenyans echo this cautious sentiment. While many welcome signs of stability, they argue that the lived reality tells a different story.

Lawyer-turned-activist Kebaso Morara is among those who believe the positive projections are not reflective of what ordinary citizens experience.

“The truth about the economy will come out. It will flash before our eyes that our shilling exchange was not Sh130 against the dollar — it was being artificially managed,” he said.

According to him, Kenya’s public debt is already beyond Sh14 trillion, but “new debt was being hidden from the books”.

He believes the full picture of the economy will only become clear with time and worsen after the electioneering period.

“The true picture of the collapse of our economy and the privatisation of national assets will become clear,” he said, expressing a view shared by many sceptical of official data.

For others, the issues are far more immediate and personal. Businesswoman Ngonyo Caroline says the economic environment has already taken a heavy toll on small and medium-sized enterprises.

“Things are already bad. Many establishments have shut down because the business environment is not good. Many have been auctioned. They could not pay their rents or loans, or both,” she said.

Her comments reflect a broader struggle among traders, restaurant owners, service providers and manufacturers who say the operating environment continues to deteriorate.

Ngonyo says the government may have invested in infrastructure, but the intended economic effect has not reached the grassroots.

“There’s no circulation of money,” she said, noting that newly built markets remain under-used because traders simply cannot move goods fast enough in an economy where customer spending has thinned.

In Donholm, boda boda rider Steven Muyeyi recounts how his daily income has plummeted.

“Tunakaa tu hapa mpaka jioni ile kidogo tunapata tunashukuru kwa sababu pia tunaelewa watu hawana pesa, sio kujifanya,” he said.

(We just sit here until evening and appreciate whatever little we get, because we also understand that people don’t have money — it’s not that they’re pretending)

He previously made around Sh2,000 a day. Now, he says, many of his former clients wake up earlier to catch matatus because they can no longer afford motorbike rides.

“Watu wanarauka kuenda kule wanaenda watumie matatu coz wakichelewa wanajua hawana ya kulipa nduthi,” he said.

Even service providers who typically rely on constant demand say they are struggling. Ngonyo points out that kinyozi businesses, which normally attract stable foot traffic, are now seeing customers bargaining aggressively.

“Unafanya kila kitu unaweza but dough iko huko juu na imekataa kushuka kabisa. Watu wanabargain services zenye hawakuwa wanabargain before,” she explained.

(You do everything you can, but money appears stuck high up with government and refuses to trickle down. People are bargaining for services they never used to bargain for before)

She says clients that easily parted with Sh300 for a haircut are now insisting on paying Sh200 — and most barbers have no choice but to accept.

“If you don’t take this 200 you might not get another client so you just take it” she said. “Biashara ni mbaya, everyone is complaining.”

Families are also adjusting their lifestyles significantly. Many say the festive season will be markedly subdued as they brace for what they anticipate will be a difficult first quarter of 2026.

Parents are prioritising school fees, rent and food, while postponing travel, entertainment and holiday shopping.

"My employer told me to take a 30 per cent pay cut or leave. I chose to stay because I got this job after staying jobless since the Covid pandemic. I couldn't risk returning to the streets again with just a month's salary," a father of three who spoke on condition of anonymity said.

Social gatherings, once a hallmark of the season, are shrinking in size as households tighten budgets.

Things have become so tough that, in the weeks leading up to the festive season, an online debate broke out over the noticeable drop in the number of men — traditionally seen as the big spenders — in nightclubs and other entertainment spots.

Yet amid the gloom, there is resilience — and hope. Many Kenyans express confidence that long-term reforms could eventually bear fruit, even if the present is painful.

Others hope 2026 will bring relief through better rains, improved agricultural output, clearer fiscal policies and sustained currency stability.

For many, hope itself has become a form of resistance against despair. As the country enters 2026, one reality stands out: Kenyans are not merely waiting for the government to fix things; they are adapting, recalibrating and pushing through.

Their voices tell the story of a nation both burdened and determined.

Whether speaking from market stalls, office corridors or online platforms, Kenyans are clear about what they want — stability, opportunities, fair taxation, thriving businesses and a chance to breathe again.

The new year will test whether the optimism projected by national economic indicators can trickle down to households and small businesses.

It will test whether political stability can translate into economic confidence, and whether reforms can deliver meaningful, everyday impact.

It will also reveal whether the country’s resilience, long its defining trait, can carry it through yet another turbulent chapter.

But for now, as the clock ticks toward 2026, Kenyans remain steadfast. Their hopes for dignity, fairness, stability and prosperity remain unbroken.