Domestic tourists at Continental Beach Resort in Shanzu, Mombasa / MARTIN MWITA

FOR the past seven years, Chao and her family have always spent Christmas in either Diani or Mombasa, booking at least a week-long holiday at a beach hotel.

Things are, however, different this year. The family tradition is being broken and they will be spending the festive season in Nairobi due to reduced disposable income.

“The year has not been that good and remember January is around the corner, so we decided to save for school fees and other January bills,” Chao told the Star.

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Thomas Otieno is planning to travel to Siaya for the Christmas and New year festivities. He has been saving for the trip since February, as the travel comes at a high cost for him and his family of four.

For Florence Robi, who lives and works in Mombasa, she plans to travel to the village in Migori with her family, but the costs that come with the long-distance travel are high.

A bus ticket currently costs between Sh1,600 and Sh2,000 with the last minute rush expected to push prices up.

Fares from Nairobi to the Western, Coast, Nyanza and other destinations have already hit Sh1,800 from the usual average of Sh1,000 and Sh1,400.

Online reviews by the Star showed only a few bookings available in major bus companies with some full up to December 30.

“The demand is very high. I think by Wednesday  or Thursday all our buses for the Christmas week will be fully booked,” a clerk at Ena Coach Nairobi office told the Star.

Matatu Owners Association president Albert Karakacha said travel demand started picking up last week, even as he called on the industry not to overcharge travellers.

“It is a tradition whenever demand is high to see operators increase fares. We are urging our members not to overprice. These are the same people who give us day-to-day business, so we must be considerate,” Karakacha said.

He called on Saccos to ensure drivers only work for eight hours per day to avoid fatigue, a recipe for accidents on the roads.

“Drivers should be very careful and know that they are carrying lives. I urge members of the public to report any speeding on the roads.”

Kenya Railways has been forced to run an additional train between Nairobi and Mombasa to cater to the high demand, a service that commenced on December 8  to January 5. 

At the Coast, the most preferred holiday destination for Kenyans, hotels have reported high bookings for the festive period with Airbnb’s equally full.

“Bookings are good and we are currently receiving good numbers, more so from the domestic market. We anticipate very busy festivities with over 90 per cent bookings,” Kenya Coast Tourist Association CEO Julius Owino said.

Mombasa Continental Resort reported being 95 per cent full, with the domestic market accounting for the largest share of guests.

“We are very happy that SGR has an additional train. Our Kenyan travellers are known for last-minute bookings and the gesture by SGR is certainly a welcome move,” general manager Mike Kamau said.

Leopard Beach Resort and Spa general manager Kioko Musyoki, who is also the Kenya Association of Hotelkeepers and Caterers South Coast region chairperson, said that Diani is gearing up for the peak currently at 70 per cent, and expected to get busier by Christmas. 

“We have diverse nationalities, with Kenyans taking the lead and other nationalities mainly from Europe and the region. We are very happy to see the continued growth of our domestic market to supplement other source market,s” Musyoki said.

It is, however, not all rosy for some families in an economy that saw massive job losses during the year, with salary cuts also reducing the spending power of those lucky to remain in employment amid high taxation. Businesses have also struggled to remain afloat this year, mainly as a result of high operating costs and reduced sales.

Companies have been forced to either scale down operations or shut down, with layoffs as the last option after exhausting other measures like cost-cutting, hiring freezes or voluntary programmes. For those who are still in employment, many face stagnated salaries with some having to take pay cuts according to industry trends.

Job cuts have affected sectors such as agriculture, banking, manufacturing, technology, healthcare and media due to factors like declining sales, high costs, technological disruption and government policies.

Some of the most recent firms that indicated intentions to lay off include Sri Lankan firm Browns Plantations, just one year after taking over tea estates in Kericho, Bomet, and Kiambu counties from James Finlay Kenya and Ekaterra Plc.The announcement made in September placed 2,000 jobs on the line.

Kenyan healthtech startup Ilara also announced restructuring, with an undisclosed number of its employees affected, over a funding crunch.

 “This is a difficult moment for our team, especially in light of recent strides we have made in the business,” said Emilian Popa, founder and CEO of Ilara Health. 

G4S Kenya laid off approximately 400 staff members starting November last year, with the process concluding by February this year due to reduced business, which led to a decline in revenues and high operating costs. 

Other companies that announced redundancies in recent times include Tropikal Brand Africa, Standard Group which sent home about 300 employees as part of a restructuring, Copia which cut off 25 per cent of its staff, Wire Product Limited which sent home 178 employees, Tile and Carpet Centre, WPP Scangroup, among others.

The situation remains gloomy, with more expected to be kicked out, including in the Export Processing Zones after the expiry of the African Growth and Opportunity Act in September.

At least 66,800 direct jobs, three-quarters of them women are in the EPZ sector supporting nearly 800,000 livelihoods which depended on Agoa, according to Kenya Private Sector Alliance CEO Karole Kariuki.

About 40 per cent of employers under the Federation of Kenya Employers had last year indicated they were planning to cut down the number of employees this year to meet the increasing costs of operating in Kenya.

This puts the average number at 2,000 members, including associations whose membership is spread across the different sectors of the economy.

Dozens of companies have since actualised the redundancies, which have rendered thousands of Kenyans jobless, with numbers estimated to be above 60,000 in the formal private sector.

A recent CEOs survey by the Central Bank of Kenya indicated nearly a quarter of manufacturing and service sector firms reduced full-time staff in the first half of 2025, due to falling sales and high operating costs. 

According to the Institute of Economic Affairs, the country still faces a weakened labour market, high food prices and inflation, which hinder private investment and sustained growth in the post-Covid era.

It advocates for “careful fiscal management”, emphasising the risks of excessive borrowing and the need to avoid costly economic nationalism in favour of international trade, while also proposing alternative macroeconomic strategies to achieve stability and debt resolution. 

The African Development Bank notes that high business costs, including expensive electricity and costly business registration continue to pose challenges for investors in Kenya.

While inflation remained low at 4.5 per cent in November, things are different in some homes as most Kenyans continue to struggle to make ends meet, pointing to a gloomy Christmas for some.

This, even as CBK notes that some food prices are likely to go up this festive season as a result of high demand.

The majority of respondents in a November 2025 Agriculture sector survey by the CBK projected seasonal factors associated with the festivities in December, and higher prices of some food items, particularly vegetables, to exert moderate upward pressure on overall inflation, according to governor Kamau Thugge.

 The Consumer Federation of Kenya notes that low disposable income will spoil the Christmas mood for many.

For a growing number of families, disposable income has shrunk to the point where Christmas spending is no longer about celebration, but survival. It actually means an ordinary day as they warm up to send their children to school,” secretary general Stephen Mutoro said.

Headline inflation figures may suggest stability, for political optics, but they mask a deeper reality where real incomes have continued to significantly decline.

“Compared to last year, this festive season feels more constrained. Consumer spending is visibly subdued, not because Kenyans have suddenly become frugal, but because purchasing power has been eroded,” Mutoro said.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

An estimated 20 million Kenyans are likely to sleep hungry because they cannot meet their basic food and non-food needs, according to recent findings by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.

The statistics body estimates that there is a 39.8 per cent overall national poverty headcount rate for individuals in the country.

Headcount rate refers to the percentage of the population living below the poverty line, indicating the proportion of individuals who are considered poor. It measures the incidence of poverty without accounting for the severity or depth of poverty.