AJUOK: Temporary political truce, and why Ruto no longer needs ODM experts

Politics is the only game where the knives are usually out at the same time as the smiles, with protagonists raising hands in solidarity, promising undying love and crafting ideological marriages that they head straight to night meetings afterwards to betray.

When the ODM central management committee met on Monday this week in Nairobi, the subsequent press conference seemed nervous and uneasy. You could almost stretch the hand and touch the hidden knives. Some of the smiles were as plastic as toy guns.

But the whole ceremony, to its credit, bought the party and the nation a temporary political truce, possibly long enough to allow the emotions from the funeral of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga to simmer down.

Before the meeting, some party leaders, led by Homa Bay Governor and ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga had seemed to lose their heads in the post-burial chaos, stomping around like bulls in a china shop, with decrees and warnings, obviously imagining that the Raila succession would be handled like instant coffee.

In nearly all recent ODM central committee (CC) meetings, the advance narrative has always been that “this will be the one that deals with SG (secretary-general) Edwin Sifuna”.

Make no mistake; ahead of the Monday session, certain leaders in the party had let it be known that they would propose a resolution at the committee to remove their belligerent SG, now that the safe umbrella of Raila, which had made him untouchable, was gone.

Again, make no mistake, this only became untenable because the overriding chatter after Raila’s funeral within the party was “if Sifuna leaves, we’ll leave too”.

I am not certain how much self-introspection exists within the membership of the ODM CC, but I can state without fear that if each chose to take a good look at post-Raila politics, they would have rightly concluded that many people in the room had more impending problems than an SG who refuses to bow to the new political master in town.

Because in the grand scheme of things, the SG may claim real grassroots following, where others in the room had only drawn their political lifeline from the departed PM.

It is on this score that indeed, I submit that President William Ruto should deploy ruthless mode and throw out the so-called ODM experts from his government and fashion out a more aligned co-operation with Luo Nyanza henceforth.

At the time of penning this piece, rumours on the streets has it that a Cabinet reshuffle is looming, with new faces set to join government as others depart.

Among those said to be set for a seat on the table is Raila’s daughter Winnie Odinga currently a member of EALA, based in Arusha, Tanzania. She made the “ready to return home” declaration at her father’s funeral.

There is a simple philosophy to the broad-based government, even if it remains unsaid. It is that the shadow of Raila, and the stability that came with it, was always in government to help give it the image of wider acceptability, largely borne of the two top presidential contenders from 2022 working together.

The five members of the Cabinet co-opted from ODM in 2024 represented this shadow.

They are CSs Hassan Joho (Mining and Blue Economy), John Mbadi (National Treasury), Beatrice Askul (Regional Development), Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives) and Opiyo Wandayi (Energy). Collectively, they represented Raila, but in the latter’s absence, each will be weighed individually.

If the President were to seek my opinion, I would gladly aver that of the entire cast, only Mbadi, and perhaps Joho, posses the political noses and grassroots connection to be valuable to him after Raila. Mbadi is a lethal political operator with an explosive presence on the microphone. He is heavily gifted in the use of Dholuo idioms and can engage crowds for hours on end.

Because of this, he is a fearless political warrior who can set the agenda and tone for narrative building. Apart from him, Joho also happens to be quite popular among the youth, even if his Instagram political style may not appeal to older audiences.

Due to the foregoing, and given Ruto’s desire to work with Luo Nyanza ahead of the 2027 election, I am persuaded that he no longer needs the “experts” in Cabinet and leaders within ODM who drew their influence solely from being propped up by Raila.

In fact, the more compelling action would be for the President to create his own surrogates outside ODM, and dump most of those he had supposedly taken on loan from Raila. This way, he avoids the need to practically run two political formations from State House.

Before Raila’s demise, ODM had planned a November jamboree in Mombasa to celebrate the party’s 20^th birthday. All indications were that the President would accompany Raila to the fete, conveniently arriving their bearing the loose brand name “ODM founder”.

Convenience is a staple of politics, so it is hard to begrudge Ruto one. But in the absence of the former PM, it seems to be that it would be a bad idea for the President to attend a large ODM meeting where some delegates may not be necessarily enthusiastic about the arrangement he had with Raila, where the latter can no longer call the shots.

There is a general election coming in just about eighteen months. Between now and that time, there will be no room for sentimental political positions based on old friendships, unless someone stands to benefit.

Like with the death of the founding father Jomo Kenyatta in 1978, the mourning period for Raila will be succeeded by a season of political pragmatism, in which old ties will be broken and supposedly tight bonds will be set loose.

Woe unto them who have depended for long on the political principle of “raised hands”, drawing undue benefits from closeness to especially the enigmatic Odinga.

If the Cabinet reshuffle does come, indeed if major changes happen in government, it will be a mirror to the short-term thinking of President Ruto on how he intends to position his pieces for the bruising contest ahead.

But more keen watchers will be interested on the destiny of ODM from now. Many people have predicted that the party will break into smaller splinter groups, but I suspect that if the truly popular leaders in the movement take charge of it, there is a remote chance it may surprise everyone and run one more electoral cycle.

In the meantime, the possible implosion of ODM seems to have been averted for now. But the line remains drawn between those who want to use it as a trading vessel to extract favours from Ruto, and those who seek to retain its identity as an influential political formation on Kenya’s political landscape.

I am sure the President will not entertain the former for too long, now that Raila isn’t here to underwrite their desires. But the latter has to go through a difficult period of trying to assert their authority and own the party.

If they succeed, the party may get a lifeline and survive the short-term turbulent period.

This latter faction seems to have emerged with the upper hand from the last three weeks, but staying on top of the league table requires more than winning just a few matches. The long term game starts now.