ODM without Raila: Test in Ugunja, Kasipul and Magarini by-elections

The upcoming by-elections in Ugunja, Kasipul and Magarini will be a major litmus test for the Orange Democratic Movement as the party faces its first electoral challenge without its long-time leader, Raila Odinga.

Raila, who was laid to rest on Sunday following his sudden death last week, had for decades been the party’s undisputed supremo, whose influence and charisma helped propel ODM candidates to victory across the country.

Now, in his absence, the party’s top brass faces a crucial test—whether they can retain key seats and maintain ODM’s dominance ahead of the next general election.

Raila’s elder brother, Oburu Oginga, has been named acting party leader as ODM navigates the post-Raila transition.

Political analysts say the outcome of the upcoming mini-polls will signal whether ODM can sustain its grassroots support or if its grip has weakened without its iconic founder.

The results are also expected to send a strong message to Raila’s close allies, many of whom have long relied on his political clout to secure electoral victories.

In Kasipul (Homa Bay county), ODM’s Boyd Were faces stiff competition from nine other candidates cleared by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission.

His rivals include Collins Okeyo (MDG), Linda Ouma (Independent), Philip Aroko (Independent), Robert Ajwang’ (Independent), Omondi Ko’yoo (National Liberal Party), Jesse Okello and Rateng’ Kotiende.

Kasipul has traditionally been an ODM stronghold, but the crowded race now poses a major challenge for the party. All eyes will be on the party leadership to see whether they can secure victory without Raila’s direct influence.

In Magarini constituency (Kilifi county), ODM candidate Harrison Kombe will face six opponents–Stanley Kenga (DCP), Furaha Chengo (DNA), John Sulubu (KSCP), Karisa Chadi (Roots Party), Emmanuel Kalama (The We Alliance Party) and Samuel Nzai (Independent).

ODM leaders in Kilifi have vowed to deliver the seat in honour of their late party leader.

“The best way to keep Raila’s spirit alive is to sustain ODM’s dominance in Kilifi. We will begin by doing so in the Magarini by-election,” said Joseph Chilumo, ODM’s Kilifi County deputy chair.

Former MP Opiyo Wandayi’s appointment as Energy CS left the Ugunja seat (Siaya county) vacant.

The IEBC has cleared 11 candidates to contest, including Benson Otieno (United Green Movement), Erick Ofiro (Jubilee Party), Vincent Olengo (Kenya Moja) and Fredrick Ochiel (United Democratic Movement).

Others are Oliver Ochieng’ (National Liberal Party), Lilian Akinyi (National Alliance Party), Moses Omondi (ODM), Orodi Odhiambo (Wiper Democratic Movement), Maurice Okumu (Liberal Party of Kenya) and Chris Budo (Kanu).

The Ugunja race will be closely watched, not only for its link to Wandayi—one of Raila’s loyal lieutenants—but also as a measure of ODM’s continued strength in Siaya, long considered the heart of Raila’s political base.

The three by-elections present a defining moment for ODM. Victory would reassure supporters that the party remains intact despite Raila’s absence, while losses could embolden rival parties seeking to fill the political vacuum left by the former Prime Minister’s passing.

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