Why deal with Ruto is a political masterstroke for Gideon

Former Baringo Senator Gideon Moi’s surprise truce with President William Ruto could prove to be a masterstroke for the Kanu chairman.

Gideon, who has been out of the limelight since the 2022 General Election, on Thursday dramatically pulled out of the upcoming Baringo senatorial by-election on November 27.

He withdrew after he sealed a deal with the President at the State House in Nairobi, pulling a surprise in the ever-changing pre-poll landscape.

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Political observers say the decision to team up with Ruto could transform Gideon’s dwindling political fortunes.

Analysts say the Kanu boss — who lost the 2022 senatorial race to Ruto’s UDA candidate William Cheptumo, now deceased — is likely to regain traction, acceptance and influence within the Kalenjin community by yielding to Ruto.

Gideon failed to stop the UDA wave in Rift Valley in 2022, losing the Senate seat to Cheptumo, who garnered 141,777 votes, while Gideon came second with 71,408 votes.

Seen as the senior-most politician in Rift Valley after Ruto, Gideon could capitalise on his renewed friendship with the President to rally the community behind him.

This friendship might position him as a possible heir apparent once Ruto exits the political stage in 2032, should the President win re-election in 2027.

“They are doing what the Kikuyu community did previously. We saw Uhuru Kenyatta move from the opposition to work with Mwai Kibaki — a plan that eventually positioned him to succeed Kibaki,” analyst Martin Andati said.

He said Gideon stands the best chance to succeed Ruto, arguing their new alliance could be part of a broader succession strategy.

“Gideon Moi has deep pockets, and that gives him an edge after Ruto retires. What he has lacked is community support, which they have now started working on,” Andati said.

Ruto has been perceived to be grooming a generation of younger leaders from the region to succeed him; however, Gideon’s return could reshape the dynamics.

Among those viewed as Ruto’s protégés are Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen, Senate Majority leader Aaron Cheruiyot and Nandi Governor Stephen Sang — figures who have risen through the ranks under the President’s mentorship.

“When Kanu chairman Gideon links up with the Engineer, get ready for a seismic shift in the political landscape,” Kapseret MP Oscar Sudi, commonly known as Engineer, said.

On Friday, Gideon hosted Ruto and Kanu delegates from Baringo at his Kabarak home in Nakuru County.

“We’ve elected to pursue the path of unity and shared purpose at this crucial point in our nation. As such, I extend my heartfelt gratitude to the people of Baringo for their support and for granting us a chance to move beyond our differences and mould a cohesive and prosperous nation,” Gideon said.

Addressing Kanu grassroots leaders in Baringo, President Ruto described his outreach as essential for “national unity” and called for political differences to be set aside.

He said Gideon and his Kanu brigade will be assimilated into the broad-based government as part of their new deal.

“I looked for Gideon because national cohesion is bigger than our differences. I have talked to my brother [Gideon] so that he can assist me in building the nation.”

“To make this country develop to a First World [nation], I have asked for more hands and broader goodwill. That’s why we established the broad-based government so that together we can push Kenya’s priorities ahead,” Ruto said.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

President Ruto sealed a unity deal with Gideon Moi at Kabarak on Friday, officially bringing the independence party Kanu into the “broad-based government”. The accord is linked to Gideon’s withdrawal from the Baringo Senate by-election, in which he was reportedly the frontrunner against government candidate Vincent Cheburet Chemitei. It will help ensure UDA’s strength in Parliament.